Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-31
Resolves by: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rewards: 20 min size · 3.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.023. down 0.054 over the period, from 0.077. Range 0.015 to 0.093. 151 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.032	18	18
0.033	1,158	1,176
0.034	45	1,222
0.035	20	1,242
0.039	989	2,231
0.040	20	2,251
0.042	1,501	3,752
0.052	211	3,962
0.054	20	3,982
0.059	40	4,022
0.265	50	4,072
0.389	7	4,079

Spread0.018Mid0.023

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.014	40	40
0.012	193	233
0.008	331	564
0.007	601	1,166
0.006	299	1,465
0.005	505	1,969
0.004	1,863	3,832
0.003	90	3,922
0.002	852	4,774
0.001	19,398	24,172

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.986	40	40
0.988	193	233
0.992	331	564
0.993	601	1,166
0.994	299	1,465
0.995	505	1,969
0.996	1,863	3,832
0.997	90	3,922
0.998	852	4,774
0.999	19,398	24,172

Spread0.018Mid0.977

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.968	18	18
0.967	1,158	1,176
0.966	45	1,222
0.965	20	1,242
0.961	989	2,231
0.960	20	2,251
0.958	1,501	3,752
0.948	211	3,962
0.946	20	3,982
0.941	40	4,022
0.735	50	4,072
0.611	7	4,079

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
thecaricature	Yes	290.66
0xa288476992285Ab1535a19fF5CB5C31d494Bf80f-1766059352725	Yes	235.4
0x43ca1f1D6ee7Aabae77904Ac6bD49645EefCd04C-1772321874896	Yes	168.67
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	157.89
Hugin-og-Munin	Yes	120
hithitfar	Yes	112.79
tinman2	Yes	95.35
LornaPredicts	Yes	60
0xC323C16b60aDb1C713eF2084916157eF90b1A9ca-1771891281181	Yes	50
757677	Yes	44
polikstoproc	Yes	42.29
0xd38F5f17D57b4deD218dfCBcA4Bd8dEEe78ABf78-1782112319192	Yes	40
Numitus1994	Yes	34.14
daroghi	Yes	30
SiSi	Yes	30
ghorrock	Yes	29.04
LBZbot2	Yes	25.71
0xa154…87c6	Yes	25.08
Tallguy2527	Yes	21.75
S888	Yes	20.81

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
02:37:55	SELL	No	0.967	20	$19.34
17:10:39	BUY	No	0.9879999996	11	$10.53
17:10:37	BUY	Yes	0.0329999996	31	$1.01
17:10:37	BUY	Yes	0.032	100	$3.20
11:54:22	BUY	Yes	0.032	120	$3.84
11:54:13	BUY	Yes	0.032	40	$1.28
19:55:12	BUY	Yes	0.032	51	$1.63
00:28:20	SELL	No	0.972	8	$7.78
00:28:19	SELL	No	0.974	12	$11.69
00:27:59	BUY	Yes	0.021	60	$1.26
19:32:52	SELL	Yes	0.0133475239	115	$1.54
19:32:50	SELL	Yes	0.0191296012	443	$8.48
19:00:37	SELL	Yes	0.0245890455	62	$1.54
19:00:22	SELL	Yes	0.027	39	$1.04
18:07:16	SELL	Yes	0.027294	20	$0.55
17:11:38	SELL	No	0.963	0	$0.26
17:00:14	BUY	No	0.962	16	$15.47
16:47:19	SELL	Yes	0.038	20	$0.76
16:47:14	SELL	Yes	0.0436315	20	$0.87
16:47:11	SELL	Yes	0.045	4	$0.18
16:47:10	SELL	Yes	0.0518045	40	$2.07
16:45:13	BUY	Yes	0.055	40	$2.20
16:45:11	SELL	Yes	0.055	20	$1.10
16:44:44	SELL	Yes	0.052	14	$0.72
16:44:32	BUY	No	0.9479452537	20	$19.22