Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://lmarena.ai/
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.18. up 0.05 over the period, from 0.13. Range 0.09 to 0.18. 149 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.19	200	200
0.20	60	260
0.21	20	280
0.45	20	300
0.58	6	306
0.59	483	789
0.83	195	984
0.84	432	1,416
0.85	1,068	2,484
0.92	5	2,489
0.95	506	2,995
0.96	2,500	5,495

Spread0.02Mid0.18

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.17	122	122
0.16	72	194
0.13	25	219
0.12	58	276
0.10	101	377
0.09	343	720
0.08	45	765
0.07	71	837
0.06	83	920
0.05	1,661	2,581
0.04	391	2,973
0.03	583	3,556

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.83	122	122
0.84	72	194
0.87	25	219
0.88	58	276
0.90	101	377
0.91	343	720
0.92	45	765
0.93	71	837
0.94	83	920
0.95	1,661	2,581
0.96	391	2,973
0.97	583	3,556

Spread0.02Mid0.82

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.81	200	200
0.80	60	260
0.79	20	280
0.55	20	300
0.42	6	306
0.41	483	789
0.17	195	984
0.16	432	1,416
0.15	1,068	2,484
0.08	5	2,489
0.05	506	2,995
0.04	2,500	5,495

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
bmtr	Yes	1,948.86
m33zy	Yes	1,753
hellovinci1	Yes	1,067.81
MineYours	Yes	999.99
macrosteaks	Yes	786.97
crop?	Yes	548.84
thursdays	Yes	510.38
asdasdasdasdasdasdasd	Yes	490.28
NOPH	Yes	399.98
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	367.7
plusdome	Yes	299.86
algo168	Yes	290.45
paprikc	Yes	206.25
ZeaLBG	Yes	189.64
nasos.pap	Yes	133.9
ghorrock	Yes	91.92
0x3Ee4bf420046D18CD94bC58a1A3CafbFC2624cCa-1741428450198	Yes	87
peepeepooppoop	Yes	80
alexdf	Yes	77.35
0xA099c1449b45628f13A24ECD11545A74Aa708943-1782642029597	Yes	46.98

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
10:11:58	BUY	No	0.83	51	$42.47
04:25:19	SELL	Yes	0.17	14	$2.40
21:29:48	SELL	Yes	0.17	7	$1.19
17:21:54	SELL	No	0.82	25	$20.86
15:13:52	SELL	Yes	0.18	28	$5.04
15:12:51	SELL	No	0.81	110	$88.74
15:02:31	SELL	No	0.81	0	$0.36
14:48:51	SELL	Yes	0.18	52	$9.36
14:47:58	BUY	Yes	0.16	271	$43.41
14:47:58	BUY	Yes	0.1747426667	75	$13.11
14:47:58	BUY	Yes	0.1662684142	191	$31.72
14:47:58	BUY	Yes	0.16	50	$8.00
14:47:58	BUY	Yes	0.16	14	$2.21
06:28:55	SELL	Yes	0.16	8	$1.28
06:23:36	SELL	Yes	0.1676	9	$1.51
06:23:25	SELL	Yes	0.170414876	121	$20.62
04:16:01	BUY	Yes	0.17	50	$8.50
04:01:43	BUY	Yes	0.14	30	$4.27
03:40:25	BUY	Yes	0.14	10	$1.40
03:09:21	BUY	Yes	0.14	36	$5.04
03:09:15	BUY	Yes	0.15	37	$5.61
22:01:10	SELL	Yes	0.15	239	$35.85
22:01:10	BUY	No	0.859999996	20	$17.39
22:01:09	BUY	No	0.87	20	$17.40
22:01:09	BUY	No	0.86	24	$20.64