0x3Ee4bf420046D18CD94bC58a1A3CafbFC2624cCa-1741428450198
0x3ee4bf420046d18cd94bc58a1a3cafbfc2624cca
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $15.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.345 | 0.180 | $15.66 | −$14.34 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? · Yes | 0.647 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.92 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.00 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$120.00at 0.400Will the next Pope be from Europe?
- +$99.88at 0.500Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?
- +$84.97at 0.869Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?
- +$73.86at 0.575Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$59.34at 0.672Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 20:58 | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.2064895127 | $80.00 |
| 08-16 09:55 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9669999932 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 22:18 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3340997675 | $60.00 |
| 08-10 14:37 | Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9856826101 | $80.00 |
| 08-09 19:35 | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0930776132 | $70.00 |
| 08-09 19:27 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3448275862 | $30.00 |
| 08-09 19:22 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.9954904733 | $247.13 |
| 08-04 11:41 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8892916519 | $220.77 |
| 07-08 07:35 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $179.50 |
| 06-07 20:22 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.6628800908 | $119.86 |
| 10-20 11:40 | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.95 |
| 08-07 09:43 | Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.52 |
| 08-06 21:55 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.3699999945 | $40.00 |
| 08-01 08:27 | Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | BUY | 0.44 | $231.88 |
| 06-03 17:36 | Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025? | BUY | 0.8687962756 | $562.66 |