PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

crop?

0xe30898ebedefd06a8acd3ea2bfdd7a00bd67309c

Realised P&L
$-933.43
Volume
$139.9k
Markets traded
339
Open portfolio
$958.51

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded339
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.3270.295$230.95$25.25
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2590.250$137.21$4.99
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · No0.3420.525$122.85+$42.79
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0930.095$111.49+$2.61
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? · No0.2500.395$76.63+$28.13
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.2430.265$41.45+$3.44
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0920.160$40.32+$17.04
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · Yes0.3310.315$33.23$1.71
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.5220.154$29.59$70.41
Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2200.245$17.15+$1.75
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? · No0.0600.083$16.50+$4.50
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · No0.4030.120$16.05$37.56
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0190.019$15.00+$0.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.1670.115$14.38$6.52
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0080.005$11.87$5.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 15:49Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?BUY0.11$13.75
09-07 08:17Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?BUY0.2579365052$50.00
09-07 08:16Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?SELL0.42$84.00
09-06 14:42Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.41$61.50
09-06 12:41Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.4309234349$40.00
09-06 12:37Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.3$3.00
09-06 12:37Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.3016488223$140.87
09-06 12:37Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.29$76.28
09-06 11:10Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?BUY0.25$48.50
09-06 11:10Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?BUY0.3421367521$80.06
09-04 10:27Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?SELL0.991$19.82
08-21 15:45Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.0148131235$25.00
08-17 11:24Will Thursday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?BUY0.0899999779$3.55
08-17 11:23Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.27$16.50
08-17 10:50Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.25$9.34