nasos.pap
0x81b4a7abd14b87190a83b231b36361bc5c05a888
- Realised P&L
- $-609.00
- Volume
- $26.7k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $95.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.81at 0.210Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?
- +$14.23at 0.260Will Trump say "Jesus" during September?
- +$7.90at 0.310OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?
- +$7.11at 0.380Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$5.86at 0.460Will Trump say "Bin Laden" during September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 18:12 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $13.39 |
| 10-05 18:09 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999987 | $14.44 |
| 10-05 18:07 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.2298689719 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 18:05 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 18:00 | Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 10-05 17:57 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $20.00 |
| 09-23 16:22 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0511331162 | $10.00 |
| 09-19 00:07 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.0950980385 | $10.00 |
| 11-20 22:00 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025? | BUY | 0.0124326716 | $4.00 |
| 11-18 20:04 | Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.57 |
| 11-08 17:59 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.64 | $2.37 |
| 11-08 17:59 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.20 |
| 10-16 09:01 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 10-09 20:20 | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? | BUY | 0.009 | $5.29 |
| 10-09 20:19 | Will Trump say "Don't Take Tylenol" in October? | SELL | 0.968 | $10.29 |