bmtr
0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c
- Realised P&L
- $15.9k
- Volume
- $705.2k
- Markets traded
- 382
- Open portfolio
- $12.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded382
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.026Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
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- +$3.1kat 0.123Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
- +$2.7kat 0.334Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.689Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:21 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.14 |
| 09-17 00:20 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $11.03 |
| 09-17 00:20 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $11.03 |
| 09-16 20:53 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.109 | $9.31 |
| 09-16 20:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $38.70 |
| 09-14 11:32 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 09-13 22:14 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $38.74 |
| 09-13 05:56 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $80.81 |
| 09-13 05:52 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $28.10 |
| 09-12 15:43 | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 09-11 22:42 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.67 |
| 09-11 22:42 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.71 |
| 09-10 16:33 | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1616573596 | $61.37 |
| 09-10 00:13 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.6 | $90.00 |
| 09-08 18:08 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.66 | $19.80 |