PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

bmtr

0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c

Realised P&L
$15.9k
Volume
$705.2k
Markets traded
382
Open portfolio
$12.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded382
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? · No0.7880.935$2.0k+$316.29
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? · No0.8010.952$1.5k+$237.48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.6300.725$937.75+$122.28
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? · No0.8750.990$861.63+$99.25
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · No0.9360.973$581.06+$22.18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.8270.880$539.16+$32.73
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.5520.920$527.06+$211.04
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2810.275$509.34$10.98
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? · No0.8670.953$498.94+$44.81
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.2910.880$494.10+$330.47
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.3400.755$462.81+$254.55
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? · Yes0.4580.370$369.78$87.49
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? · No0.9280.980$291.87+$15.35
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · No0.8160.948$263.69+$36.81
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? · No0.6750.975$250.27+$76.98

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 00:21Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026?BUY0.99$11.14
09-17 00:20Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026?BUY0.98$11.03
09-17 00:20Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026?BUY0.98$11.03
09-16 20:53Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?BUY0.109$9.31
09-16 20:53Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?BUY0.76$38.70
09-14 11:32Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?SELL0.7$35.00
09-13 22:14Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.36$38.74
09-13 05:56Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?BUY0.77$80.81
09-13 05:52Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?BUY0.56$28.10
09-12 15:43Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?SELL0.13$2.60
09-11 22:42Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?SELL0.002$0.67
09-11 22:42Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?SELL0.003$1.71
09-10 16:33Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?SELL0.1616573596$61.37
09-10 00:13Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?BUY0.6$90.00
09-08 18:08Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?BUY0.66$19.80