Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

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Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.037. down 0.013 over the period, from 0.050. Range 0.033 to 0.053. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.038	378	378
0.040	5	383
0.045	22	405
0.048	181	586
0.049	323	909
0.050	120	1,029
0.051	25	1,054
0.057	45	1,099
0.058	101	1,200
0.064	194	1,394
0.067	20	1,414
0.079	50	1,464

Spread0.001Mid0.037

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.037	56	56
0.035	15	70
0.034	110	180
0.032	40	220
0.031	450	670
0.030	2,387	3,057
0.028	90	3,147
0.026	100	3,247
0.025	150	3,397
0.023	666	4,063
0.022	1,620	5,683
0.021	591	6,274

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.963	56	56
0.965	15	70
0.966	110	180
0.968	40	220
0.969	450	670
0.970	2,387	3,057
0.972	90	3,147
0.974	100	3,247
0.975	150	3,397
0.977	666	4,063
0.978	1,620	5,683
0.979	591	6,274

Spread0.001Mid0.962

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.962	378	378
0.960	5	383
0.955	22	405
0.952	181	586
0.951	323	909
0.950	120	1,029
0.949	25	1,054
0.943	45	1,099
0.942	101	1,200
0.936	194	1,394
0.933	20	1,414
0.921	50	1,464

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
wavesinthesky	Yes	1,057.39
cqk	Yes	1,000
POTUSby	Yes	999.98
0xc9a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce466e6baf0c293	Yes	897.9
iutwpfal	Yes	873.9
Mustafalafel	Yes	813.24
balthazar	Yes	700
Rr55	Yes	610
betterfasterstronger	Yes	378
arbokbro	Yes	326
CheChe-0	Yes	133.99
hekutor	Yes	125
GuenterGoober	Yes	124.83
LornaPredicts	Yes	109.33
guessingthis	Yes	106.67
Numitus1994	Yes	101.99
sand1	Yes	100
r1stal	Yes	52.41
po-ly28-test-user6	Yes	36.36
AJSV	Yes	29.94

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
22:57:43	BUY	Yes	0.038	100	$3.80
22:33:12	BUY	No	0.963	59	$57.17
22:33:12	BUY	No	0.963	25	$24.07
22:33:10	BUY	No	0.963	10	$9.63
22:33:09	BUY	No	0.963	75	$72.13
18:35:45	BUY	Yes	0.037	5	$0.19
15:24:52	SELL	Yes	0.034	10	$0.34
13:46:40	BUY	No	0.967	20	$19.34
11:21:46	BUY	No	0.9669999932	1	$1.00
00:28:29	BUY	No	0.967	40	$38.68
00:28:27	BUY	No	0.9669999998	175	$169.67
18:15:51	BUY	No	0.965	6	$5.79
16:45:17	BUY	No	0.963331255	99	$95.79
16:45:14	BUY	No	0.963	40	$38.52
16:14:50	SELL	Yes	0.037	19	$0.70
16:12:05	SELL	Yes	0.037	31	$1.13
16:04:47	BUY	No	0.962	40	$38.48
16:04:45	BUY	No	0.963	20	$19.26
16:04:45	BUY	No	0.96296625	8	$7.70
15:44:41	BUY	No	0.95558375	40	$38.22
15:44:41	BUY	No	0.961135	10	$9.61
15:44:29	BUY	No	0.954	40	$38.16
15:44:29	BUY	No	0.954	60	$57.24
14:20:27	BUY	No	0.954	19	$18.13
13:44:12	BUY	No	0.954	38	$36.25