PolyBot

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Traders

lightsout912

0x7e1d3cb44c3f2a6ec9abc667820ee2645bd44d41

Realised P&L
$3.7k
Volume
$210.3k
Markets traded
678
Open portfolio
$2.0k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded678
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.4060.755$319.37+$147.43
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? · Yes0.7110.860$247.93+$42.84
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.7430.765$229.50+$6.50
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.3660.695$222.39+$105.20
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · No0.8090.815$194.07+$1.48
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.6020.825$162.81+$44.10
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7060.615$73.80$10.86
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? · No0.9150.915$71.68+$0.04
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.2930.155$69.71$61.89
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.4550.520$52.05+$6.55
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026? · Yes0.3720.089$49.93$157.66
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.3400.830$41.50+$24.50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0180.010$31.27$25.99
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.3140.165$28.19$25.38
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 20, 2026? · No0.9100.994$20.62+$1.73

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 22:38Will there be no next Grok model (4.7+) release by September 30, 2026?BUY0.006$0.48
09-17 22:27Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 30, 2026?BUY0.002$0.13
09-17 16:49Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?BUY0.202561$4.05
09-14 22:59Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?BUY0.9749024834$493.47
09-13 02:07Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.67$78.44
09-12 14:00Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.298366$59.67
09-12 13:49Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.3775232198$121.94
09-12 11:10Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.73$51.10
09-12 02:11Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.004$2.00
09-12 01:54Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.017$36.16
09-12 01:50Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.017$8.50
09-11 21:48Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?BUY0.95$608.00
09-11 19:07Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.71$156.20
09-11 10:40Will any other model be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?BUY0.84$58.80
09-09 19:23Liverpool FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5BUY0.06$3.60