ithinkthisisgod
0xf1ff40f082633619cd012bb96affb4ac7a645b03
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $1.52M
- Markets traded
- 1,083
- Open portfolio
- $528.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,083
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.163 | 0.095 | $249.18 | −$178.95 |
| Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.511 | 0.903 | $196.06 | +$85.11 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? · No | 0.160 | 0.165 | $49.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.009 | $27.00 | +$9.00 |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $6.55 | −$0.33 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.309 | 0.001 | $0.17 | −$106.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.6kat 0.996MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.500Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$3.2kat 0.217Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$3.0kat 0.605Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027?
- +$2.6kat 0.006MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:02 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.304 | $30.40 |
| 09-17 14:09 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 14:09 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.89 |
| 09-17 13:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | SELL | 0.38658 | $3.87 |
| 09-16 14:35 | Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch | SELL | 0.5282666667 | $79.24 |
| 09-16 12:29 | Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 09-15 16:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.99 | $3.00 |
| 09-15 16:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 16:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $60.00 |
| 09-15 15:11 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.733 | $10.99 |
| 09-15 14:56 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.767 | $37.97 |
| 09-15 14:55 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2376460307 | $56.43 |
| 09-15 14:39 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0818181766 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 11:47 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.169 | $3.11 |
| 09-15 11:46 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $19.05 |