Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: None on this market
Ends: 2026-09-30
Rewards: 0 min size · 0¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.013. down 0.002 over the period, from 0.015. Range 0.013 to 0.015. 144 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.014	13,342	13,342
0.015	3,572	16,913
0.016	8,939	25,852
0.017	7,242	33,094
0.018	442	33,536
0.019	601	34,137
0.020	2,224	36,361
0.029	5	36,366
0.030	35	36,401
0.031	226	36,627
0.033	210	36,837
0.034	156	36,993

Spread0.002Mid0.013

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.012	17,376	17,376
0.011	3,117	20,494
0.010	5,233	25,727
0.009	400	26,127
0.008	1,132	27,259
0.007	1,097	28,356
0.006	12,742	41,098
0.005	15,053	56,151
0.004	19,477	75,628
0.003	45,210	120,838
0.002	70,913	191,751
0.001	305,406	497,157

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.988	17,376	17,376
0.989	3,117	20,494
0.990	5,233	25,727
0.991	400	26,127
0.992	1,132	27,259
0.993	1,097	28,356
0.994	12,742	41,098
0.995	15,053	56,151
0.996	19,477	75,628
0.997	45,210	120,838
0.998	70,913	191,751
0.999	305,406	497,157

Spread0.002Mid0.987

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.986	13,342	13,342
0.985	3,572	16,913
0.984	8,939	25,852
0.983	7,242	33,094
0.982	442	33,536
0.981	601	34,137
0.980	2,224	36,361
0.971	5	36,366
0.970	35	36,401
0.969	226	36,627
0.967	210	36,837
0.966	156	36,993

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794	Yes	88,481.24
0xf75655c8A40c3C376aDCad34429dd0AB2432C664-1766977593909	Yes	43,591.46
ddw2222	Yes	33,499.92
topsecret17	Yes	18,914.79
Crypto4thewin	Yes	17,408.02
0xd0981aa38AB7Af988109f514767E5EB16bC8bE8f-1769646675089	Yes	16,232.52
Lunarcorona	Yes	10,000
TheLakeside	Yes	7,575.09
Pivko	Yes	4,406.94
fiter	Yes	3,600
bachana	Yes	3,244.69
0x3ef9B514f2c07881f8C69910512b0438B6Ee4479-1773855473998	Yes	2,892.58
Wojtek	Yes	2,700
alkud	Yes	2,107.76
ttwong1	Yes	1,962.37
0x51bf5269FAe3183B0ffa2c3Cbc601d8e104601Cb-1773154997504	Yes	1,666.67
0x896aB2caC03711c0648173C34F1f5dffe82bf878-1772300855934	Yes	1,540
bloodstainedcactus	Yes	1,400.6
simplystupid188	Yes	1,309.51
EmaMT	Yes	1,295.39

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
08:06:50	SELL	No	0.986	1	$1.23
07:26:50	SELL	No	0.986	362	$357.06
07:22:39	SELL	No	0.986	437	$430.66
07:19:06	SELL	No	0.986	447	$441.05
07:06:05	SELL	No	0.986	579	$571.35
06:38:20	SELL	No	0.986	159	$156.77
06:37:39	SELL	No	0.986	147	$144.94
05:44:54	SELL	No	0.986	474	$467.02
05:39:00	BUY	No	0.9879999982	4	$4.40
04:27:39	SELL	No	0.98637756	331	$326.07
00:48:17	SELL	Yes	0.012	551	$6.61
20:33:20	SELL	No	0.986	612	$603.79
15:14:30	BUY	No	0.988	75	$73.70
15:12:21	SELL	No	0.986	172	$169.59
15:08:12	SELL	No	0.986	223	$219.88
14:55:23	BUY	No	0.988	19	$19.07
14:49:45	BUY	No	0.9878463095	168	$165.96
14:21:24	SELL	Yes	0.013	60	$0.78
13:27:03	BUY	No	0.987	40	$39.48
13:07:05	SELL	No	0.986	425	$419.10
11:36:56	BUY	Yes	0.013	197	$2.56
11:36:48	BUY	No	0.988	118	$116.16
08:30:00	SELL	No	0.986	18	$17.97
07:24:39	BUY	No	0.9879999999	30	$30.00
06:36:50	SELL	No	0.986	280	$276.08