Pivko
0x108fc2deecbe9c551a8d95e622af4cf405ef7937
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $395.8k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $821.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$306.81at 0.204Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?
- +$215.64at 0.323Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
- +$113.88at 0.220Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$89.02at 0.130Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
- +$-3.20at 0.240Biden drops out of presidential race?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 11:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $12.81 |
| 07-06 17:28 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $72.73 |
| 07-06 16:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.039 | $22.69 |
| 07-06 16:16 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $120.00 |
| 06-15 17:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 06-14 16:35 | Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3862418596 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 16:32 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 09:58 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 06-08 10:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $37.90 |
| 06-08 10:35 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $17.92 |
| 05-22 23:35 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.066 | $39.42 |
| 05-22 23:33 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $55.10 |
| 05-22 23:31 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.016 | $2.39 |
| 05-14 19:28 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.0460193281 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 00:03 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |