PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Pivko

0x108fc2deecbe9c551a8d95e622af4cf405ef7937

Realised P&L
$-3.0k
Volume
$395.8k
Markets traded
71
Open portfolio
$821.46

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded71
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1100.115$230.00+$10.00
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.0980.080$201.60$45.20
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0570.038$200.44$93.75
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes0.0590.041$139.90$63.22
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0900.064$34.10$14.23
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0280.004$15.42$109.86
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$19.00
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00$26.57
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September? · Yes0.1660.000$0.00$318.17
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$100.78
Will the US strike Iran next? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$3.00
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in September? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$40.89
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? · Yes0.0530.000$0.00$9.43
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$58.18
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? · Yes0.0380.000$0.00$119.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-08 11:19Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?BUY0.015$12.81
07-06 17:28Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.06$72.73
07-06 16:23Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.039$22.69
07-06 16:16Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.06$120.00
06-15 17:57Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETBUY0.1299999789$5.00
06-14 16:35Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.3862418596$20.00
06-14 16:32Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.4699999929$20.00
06-14 09:58Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.05$50.00
06-08 10:39Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY0.008$37.90
06-08 10:35Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?BUY0.01$17.92
05-22 23:35Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.066$39.42
05-22 23:33Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?BUY0.033$55.10
05-22 23:31Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?BUY0.016$2.39
05-14 19:28Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY0.0460193281$10.00
04-01 00:03Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?BUY0.12$12.00