Crypto4thewin
0x527b46e252981a9269d34dac7c5268053929eb08
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $289.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $10.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.077 | $4.0k | −$333.04 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.135 | $3.2k | +$276.25 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.040 | $2.4k | −$1.6k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.095 | $275.71 | −$101.58 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.013 | $226.30 | −$379.08 |
| US government shutdown by October 1? · No | 0.162 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? · No | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$189.00 |
| Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$409.79 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.558US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$218.42at 0.786Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 12+ times during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?
- +$82.24at 0.845Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?
- +$-278.85at 0.249Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-31 20:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0231601192 | $325.51 |
| 05-31 20:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0103710307 | $55.90 |
| 05-31 20:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $1.08 |
| 05-31 20:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0356179604 | $17.72 |
| 05-31 20:18 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1137700341 | $1000.00 |
| 05-31 20:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1624463735 | $1000.00 |
| 05-31 20:10 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.06668455 | $1.1k |
| 05-31 20:10 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.067 | $1.4k |
| 05-31 20:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0659999999 | $500.00 |
| 05-31 19:58 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.0944525774 | $164.01 |
| 05-31 12:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0659999999 | $1000.00 |
| 05-31 12:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0408719836 | $538.15 |
| 05-31 12:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0314631412 | $761.85 |
| 05-31 12:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $377.28 |
| 05-30 19:38 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.0901160294 | $308.96 |