TheLakeside
0xbc819cd2dd2f649aedbb6bddc1d58c706c3b4fad
- Realised P&L
- $-373.88
- Volume
- $197.4k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $11.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.095 | $11.8k | −$1.7k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.055 | $7.10 | +$1.94 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$376.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.00at 0.038Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 19:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.05 |
| 10-15 15:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $403.90 |
| 10-03 17:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $802.89 |
| 09-11 03:12 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $14.91 |
| 09-10 22:07 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $70.76 |
| 08-25 01:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $0.01 |
| 08-23 22:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $239.69 |
| 08-17 14:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $123.42 |
| 07-23 17:01 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0145212712 | $110.00 |
| 07-20 13:15 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $370.26 |
| 07-20 13:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $250.00 |
| 07-20 12:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $80.00 |
| 07-20 12:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |