PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-03-02
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
Rewards
0 min size · 0¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.08. down 0.02 over the period, from 0.10. Range 0.07 to 0.11. 143 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.091,7961,796
0.10851,881
0.11301,911
0.12171,928
0.131722,100
0.14452,145
0.15332,177
0.16652,242
0.171002,342
0.181,1573,500
0.191153,615
0.201643,779

Spread0.02Mid0.08

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.07102102
0.06238340
0.05300640
0.04325965
0.033671,332
0.028002,132
0.0122,96425,096

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.93102102
0.94238340
0.95300640
0.96325965
0.973671,332
0.988002,132
0.9922,96425,096

Spread0.02Mid0.92

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.911,7961,796
0.90851,881
0.89301,911
0.88171,928
0.871722,100
0.86452,145
0.85332,177
0.84652,242
0.831002,342
0.821,1573,500
0.811153,615
0.801643,779

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
gopfan2Yes91,697.48
Orion96Yes13,133.17
troimYes9,000.08
SS123Yes7,341.03
MiojinhoYes4,999.99
0x955c…990fYes3,382.43
0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209Yes2,759.42
donthackmeYes2,747.41
flawfenceYes2,611.72
IP1380Yes2,486.13
GollumGekkoYes1,979.94
ZbinikYes1,915.79
GrokEnjoyerYes1,898
supersmardYes1,766.2
cocococococoYes1,746.7
0xa0f2…1848Yes1,632.06
zugzwaaangYes1,579
climateprofessorYes1,157.83
anoin123Yes1,127.88
WongKimArkYes1,120.01

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
00:41:30BUYYes0.0952380952105$10.00
16:11:31BUYNo0.91240$218.40
16:11:31BUYNo0.9130$27.30
20:15:27BUYYes0.0970$6.30
16:00:12SELLYes0.0817$1.38
06:12:15SELLYes0.073$0.21
07:24:59SELLYes0.1225$22.46
23:40:40BUYYes0.11999999983$10.00
15:43:41BUYNo0.91136$123.52
15:43:40BUYNo0.9130$27.30
13:34:32SELLYes0.188$8.81
09:54:35SELLYes0.117$1.70
18:21:03SELLYes0.094$0.38
13:46:18BUYYes0.110$1.03
13:35:24BUYNo0.9170$153.00
13:35:24BUYNo0.930$27.00
08:54:27SELLNo0.8810$8.80
23:41:39SELLYes0.0922$1.98
23:11:35SELLNo0.881$0.85
17:20:29BUYYes0.1317$2.21
16:01:20BUYNo0.9221$19.32
16:01:20BUYNo0.92149$137.08
16:01:20BUYNo0.9184$76.00
16:01:20BUYNo0.9175$68.25
15:09:14BUYYes0.136$3.61