0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209
0x34dbc406881a24b82f4b138e09169d9a004b1b63
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $177.4k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $10.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.790Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- +$799.56at 0.680Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- +$539.55at 0.776Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- +$396.95at 0.873Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
- +$225.18at 0.752Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 02:53 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? | BUY | 0.987 | $47.97 |
| 09-16 17:01 | Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.05 |
| 09-16 17:00 | Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 09-16 15:44 | Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? | SELL | 0.995 | $16.43 |
| 09-16 15:37 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.22 | $8.80 |
| 09-16 15:25 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $76.50 |
| 09-16 15:24 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 09-16 15:10 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? | SELL | 0.30681795 | $300.83 |
| 09-16 15:01 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.76 | $163.53 |
| 09-16 13:34 | Will September 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 09-16 10:29 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? | BUY | 0.975 | $119.92 |
| 09-16 10:25 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? | BUY | 0.9718702703 | $179.80 |
| 09-16 02:31 | Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? | SELL | 0.98 | $5.88 |
| 09-16 02:25 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | SELL | 0.37 | $8.74 |
| 09-15 23:17 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | SELL | 0.42 | $48.68 |