supersmard
0xe3f2ecfd3e648bdabcd3fb701ccf294f13afe1c1
- Realised P&L
- $45.3k
- Volume
- $1.34M
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $36.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.5kat 0.050Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
- +$9.0kat 0.117Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?
- +$4.4kat 0.547Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?
- +$3.4kat 0.508Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?
- +$2.7kat 0.146Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:21 | Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.4 | $195.60 |
| 09-16 10:30 | Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.4 | $456.24 |
| 09-15 09:12 | Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.51 | $16.27 |
| 09-15 07:39 | Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.3579668439 | $45.78 |
| 09-14 19:39 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.16 | $515.92 |
| 09-14 19:37 | Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.32 | $88.19 |
| 09-12 20:39 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.4051754316 | $141.30 |
| 09-12 19:50 | Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.21 | $116.20 |
| 09-12 19:50 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.32 | $191.76 |
| 09-12 19:46 | Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.241 | $37.31 |
| 09-12 19:21 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.392 | $67.90 |
| 09-12 16:01 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.399 | $22.44 |
| 09-12 12:30 | Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%? | BUY | 0.3177806688 | $756.02 |
| 09-12 12:27 | Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.49 | $103.88 |
| 09-12 12:21 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.4005625563 | $35.60 |