flawfence
0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288
- Realised P&L
- $1.05M
- Volume
- $31.03M
- Markets traded
- 709
- Open portfolio
- $782.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded709
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$432.3kat 0.249Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$128.8kat 0.614Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$98.8kat 0.457England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$70.0kat 0.300Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$67.3kat 0.372Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:31 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3186412722 | $2.2k |
| 10-31 20:02 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.13 | $22.8k |
| 10-30 22:17 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.0899950525 | $36.4k |
| 10-28 01:41 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.928 | $25.8k |
| 10-28 00:53 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.898 | $157.15 |
| 10-28 00:35 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.1k |
| 10-27 20:05 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.2600103965 | $18.5k |
| 10-27 19:21 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.73 | $240.56 |
| 10-27 04:04 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9083428571 | $317.92 |
| 10-26 22:55 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.8286920615 | $825.82 |
| 10-26 20:20 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.76 | $74.6k |
| 10-26 19:05 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7398828352 | $75.3k |
| 10-26 18:59 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.734 | $3.3k |
| 10-26 18:58 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.73 | $705.72 |
| 10-25 22:31 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2409933025 | $2.3k |