flawfence
0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288
- Realised P&L
- $398.5k
- Volume
- $25.22M
- Markets traded
- 638
- Open portfolio
- $863.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded638
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.8kat 0.614Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$98.8kat 0.457England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$70.0kat 0.300Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$64.0kat 0.360Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-08?
- +$61.0kat 0.390Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:04 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.25 | $656.16 |
| 09-16 18:38 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.99 | $60.8k |
| 09-16 18:25 | Will the opposition parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5680878105 | $167.17 |
| 09-16 18:22 | Will the opposition parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5241722148 | $118.10 |
| 09-16 13:27 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.89 | $6.3k |
| 09-16 12:35 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.9699253127 | $182.20 |
| 09-16 11:03 | Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1 | $12.39 |
| 09-16 11:03 | Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1 | $26.04 |
| 09-16 11:02 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1082103375 | $128.52 |
| 09-16 00:53 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.949 | $56.94 |
| 09-15 23:20 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.9289565217 | $320.49 |
| 09-15 19:54 | Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? | BUY | 0.14 | $198.80 |
| 09-15 19:32 | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | BUY | 0.5322291853 | $594.50 |
| 09-15 19:23 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.527 | $0.08 |
| 09-15 14:41 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5496062189 | $5.7k |