PolyBot

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Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-10

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.91. up 0.01 over the period, from 0.90. Range 0.90 to 0.92. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.921313
0.93145157
0.94132289
0.95215504
0.96244749
0.973001,048
0.985261,574
0.993251,899

Spread0.03Mid0.91

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.893030
0.889881,018
0.8381,026
0.824811,507
0.811,1452,652
0.64522,704
0.63132,717
0.6062,723
0.23202,743
0.11502,793
0.101002,893
0.08172,909

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.113030
0.129881,018
0.1781,026
0.184811,507
0.191,1452,652
0.36522,704
0.37132,717
0.4062,723
0.77202,743
0.89502,793
0.901002,893
0.92172,909

Spread0.03Mid0.10

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.081313
0.07145157
0.06132289
0.05215504
0.04244749
0.033001,048
0.025261,574
0.013251,899

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
Jgyuig34Yes1,203.9
AckeeYes489.62
DOJYes455.59
JB-betYes233.44
h4xorYes197.79
cry.eth2Yes186.01
jennylulu2016Yes62
AJSVYes56.59
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes55
AbleWasIEreISawElbaYes52.56
wozaitaibeiYes45
Zzzzz13Yes38.09
ChristopherGardner4578Yes20.57
FlashTradeOracleYes20.41
0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710Yes20.1
human.beanYes18.49
TinaMurray7231Yes11.56
LabellacolaYes10.11
NAZCA77Yes10
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343Yes10

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
17:50:13BUYYes0.906140$126.84
13:06:43BUYYes0.958$52.01
22:58:57SELLYes0.882$1.95
21:11:03BUYYes0.8899999912$1.98
18:48:15SELLYes0.880$0.14
09:22:06SELLYes0.8810$8.80
09:00:10BUYYes0.8910$8.90
22:08:07SELLYes0.8950$44.50
11:38:06SELLYes0.8912$10.68
11:33:13SELLYes0.8965$57.85
21:32:58BUYYes0.88100$88.00
00:06:42BUYYes0.894291743253$47.00
17:00:27BUYNo0.18999987845$1.00
12:01:03BUYYes0.873004874988$77.00
17:40:25SELLYes0.84104$86.97
13:52:57BUYYes0.895$4.45
22:23:36BUYNo0.139999946515$2.04
07:25:57BUYYes0.9073313781150$136.00
12:09:07BUYNo0.137$0.96
12:09:02BUYYes0.90277777755$50.00
10:52:27BUYYes0.909999999355$50.00
13:54:57BUYNo0.12999990098$1.01
11:37:37SELLYes0.8727494217$15.05
11:37:15BUYYes0.909999999355$50.00
08:12:33BUYNo0.103631840820$2.08