DOJ
0xb43699cbbb52520952833c10737bc43e7625bb3c
- Realised P&L
- $34.8k
- Volume
- $649.7k
- Markets traded
- 306
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded306
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.660 | 0.850 | $424.99 | +$95.00 |
| Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? · Yes | 0.894 | 0.910 | $414.59 | +$7.44 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? · No | 0.389 | 0.735 | $316.05 | +$148.65 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.676 | 0.955 | $158.26 | +$46.22 |
| Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly? · No | 0.979 | 0.994 | $81.09 | +$1.23 |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.810 | $80.99 | +$0.00 |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.945 | $27.88 | +$0.44 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$290.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.229Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.792Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
- +$4.0kat 0.712BitBoy convicted?
- +$3.8kat 0.435Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
- +$3.4kat 0.810Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 06:05 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $27.44 |
| 09-11 06:04 | Clavicular sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.05941283 | $200.78 |
| 09-08 19:05 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | BUY | 0.3893023256 | $167.40 |
| 09-08 19:05 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $140.29 |
| 09-01 01:37 | Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026? | BUY | 0.886672213 | $53.29 |
| 09-01 01:37 | Will 100 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $47.07 |
| 09-01 01:09 | Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.9794761905 | $205.69 |
| 09-01 01:09 | Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly? | BUY | 0.9789806325 | $79.87 |
| 08-30 21:21 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $7.95 |
| 08-30 21:21 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026? | BUY | 0.9596322436 | $380.71 |
| 08-30 20:25 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China? | BUY | 0.999 | $114.34 |
| 08-30 20:21 | Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 20:16 | Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane? | BUY | 0.9888964417 | $954.92 |
| 08-30 19:32 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.35 |
| 08-30 19:31 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $15.69 |