AbleWasIEreISawElba
0x802d29faedcd5d8c40411a48ca78de8c851df484
- Realised P&L
- $-425.21
- Volume
- $61.2k
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $97.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.41at 0.390Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?
- +$138.18at 0.550Will Biden finish his term?
- +$127.34at 0.840Biden drops out of presidential race?
- +$113.90at 0.423Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$86.94at 0.233Cody Ko address allegations in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 00:35 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.5368682655 | $60.00 |
| 08-21 00:06 | Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | BUY | 0.8942917432 | $47.00 |
| 08-20 23:47 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.6371681416 | $22.50 |
| 02-08 23:49 | Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |
| 02-08 23:49 | Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever? | BUY | 0.3899999902 | $20.00 |
| 02-08 23:44 | Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? | BUY | 0.1824536996 | $10.00 |
| 01-20 07:17 | Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | BUY | 0.495 | $59.40 |
| 01-20 07:16 | Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | BUY | 0.4256191917 | $39.39 |
| 01-20 07:07 | Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.0821922127 | $12.64 |
| 01-19 02:43 | Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? | BUY | 0.169999997 | $41.00 |
| 12-20 03:41 | Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? | BUY | 0.2699999967 | $45.00 |
| 12-20 03:18 | Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? | BUY | 0.15 | $45.00 |
| 12-17 00:44 | Brown University shooter arrested by December 19? | BUY | 0.32 | $75.00 |
| 12-17 00:44 | Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025? | SELL | 0.951 | $69.92 |
| 12-17 00:44 | Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition | SELL | 0.0462177132 | $6.37 |