h4xor
0x7a251ff68217a0418a8f7eddede5b638f8c881d1
- Realised P&L
- $7.9k
- Volume
- $1.19M
- Markets traded
- 571
- Open portfolio
- $13.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded571
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.092Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
- +$3.7kat 0.188Elon out of Trump administration before July?
- +$3.0kat 0.448Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?
- +$2.1kat 0.624Will MrBeast's latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1?
- +$1.8kat 0.297Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 16:23 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.7431914894 | $34.93 |
| 10-29 11:52 | Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.929 | $7.43 |
| 10-28 17:48 | CISA emergency directive issued by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5552097429 | $82.06 |
| 10-27 23:15 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $156.00 |
| 10-27 23:13 | Sweden snap election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.8184 | $81.84 |
| 10-27 21:18 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $211.20 |
| 10-27 21:17 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $266.66 |
| 10-27 21:01 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $156.00 |
| 10-27 20:58 | Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.975 | $256.43 |
| 10-27 19:49 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $360.00 |
| 10-27 19:47 | SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.90 |
| 10-27 19:45 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $141.71 |
| 10-27 19:44 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.7618478261 | $280.36 |
| 10-27 11:48 | Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"? | BUY | 0.91 | $273.00 |
| 10-27 11:21 | CISA emergency directive issued by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5376052458 | $89.77 |