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Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://lmarena.ai/

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.025. down 0.050 over the period, from 0.075. Range 0.024 to 0.075. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0432727
0.0452047
0.046151198
0.04798296
0.049100396
0.05020416
0.060499914
0.08056971
0.09020991
0.590201,011
0.800401,051
0.801241,075

Spread0.038Mid0.024

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0053333
0.004290323
0.00346369
0.002442811
0.0013131,124

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9953333
0.996290323
0.99746369
0.998442811
0.9993131,124

Spread0.038Mid0.976

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9572727
0.9552047
0.954151198
0.95398296
0.951100396
0.95020416
0.940499914
0.92056971
0.91020991
0.410201,011
0.200401,051
0.199241,075

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
planktonXDYes287
mrmullerYes150.55
AJSVYes132.56
protonboyYes116.28
LornaPredictsYes100
thecaricatureYes80
1BTCis1BTCYes77.01
0x6b0e…e3eaYes62.78
pppnnYes40
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.Yes40
pinnerYes39.9
PPMTYes27
Dr.PNLYes22.99
Numitus1994Yes21.24
0xd38F5f17D57b4deD218dfCBcA4Bd8dEEe78ABf78-1782112319192Yes20
dropmepleaseYes16.55
ghorrockYes13.42
cacatoYes11.83
winexecutescaleYes7
53asdadYes2.88

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
14:43:47SELLNo0.9711$10.67
14:43:02SELLYes0.030$0.01
14:43:02SELLNo0.9745$43.65
12:35:39SELLYes0.0301626016123$3.71
02:50:33SELLNo0.9543$2.98
09:52:04SELLNo0.965$4.80
09:45:07SELLYes0.0420$0.80
09:45:03BUYNo0.963$3.00
09:45:03SELLYes0.040677100$4.07
09:45:00SELLYes0.05100$5.00
09:44:58BUYNo0.94501$471.34
09:44:58BUYNo0.9525$23.75
19:46:32SELLYes0.079$0.64
19:27:49SELLYes0.0750$3.52
19:26:34SELLYes0.0750$3.52
16:05:54SELLYes0.07255$17.83
16:05:41SELLYes0.0840$3.20
16:05:41BUYNo0.92500$460.00
16:05:39BUYNo0.9240$36.80
09:03:41SELLNo0.914$3.39
21:42:15SELLYes0.0873$5.83
20:52:08SELLYes0.0854$4.32
19:54:41SELLYes0.0825$2.00
19:29:53SELLNo0.912$1.61
07:46:48BUYNo0.9220$18.40