PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-31
Resolves by
https://agi.safe.ai/

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.013. down 0.147 over the period, from 0.160. Range 0.013 to 0.175. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.01377
0.0581421
0.0593455
0.06050105
0.09040145
0.12015160
0.15050210
0.18944254
0.190447701
0.21724725
0.68040765
0.7145001,265

Spread0.001Mid0.013

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.012510510
0.0115501,060
0.01051,065
0.0026191,684
0.0012,2723,956

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.988510510
0.9895501,060
0.99051,065
0.9986191,684
0.9992,2723,956

Spread0.001Mid0.988

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.98777
0.9421421
0.9413455
0.94050105
0.91040145
0.88015160
0.85050210
0.81144254
0.810447701
0.78324725
0.32040765
0.2865001,265

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
Dr.PNLYes196.29
simulacrum3Yes173.01
youtube-traderYes132
FihdrzgddYes80
welderYes60.4
Mojito9Yes60
luisotavio0312Yes50
LonelyScissorsYes43.75
Numitus1994Yes42
0xd38F5f17D57b4deD218dfCBcA4Bd8dEEe78ABf78-1782112319192Yes40
rockscorpioYes37.28
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.Yes34.19
BASSATS01Yes30.01
tradetosurvive1Yes25.1
LovelyPandaYes23.75
AJSVYes21.68
sdfsdfsdfsdf2Yes20
h.hYes20
SlackjawYes19.11
planktonXDYes17

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
11:45:33SELLYes0.0520$1.00
03:33:06SELLYes0.0237250$1.19
22:59:39SELLNo0.96776$73.92
22:02:45SELLYes0.0125$0.06
21:12:31BUYYes0.033999999434$1.15
19:29:36SELLNo0.94153$49.94
17:28:43SELLYes0.05220$1.04
08:23:09SELLYes0.0317$0.22
16:10:39BUYYes0.02960$1.75
02:54:51SELLYes0.0620$1.20
02:20:54SELLYes0.086062759169$14.54
01:46:37SELLYes0.107252369873$7.81
01:46:36BUYNo0.8920$17.80
01:46:34BUYNo0.8415218603771$649.23
03:06:54SELLYes0.123$0.31
03:06:52SELLYes0.133$0.33
21:15:28SELLNo0.8438$31.74
12:20:16SELLYes0.1326$3.32
12:19:48BUYYes0.189999996221$4.00
12:19:48SELLNo0.8220$16.40
12:18:28SELLNo0.812$1.80
12:18:21BUYYes0.180499996421$3.80
12:18:19BUYYes0.179999993722$4.00
12:18:16SELLNo0.8220$16.40
10:32:25SELLNo0.8129$23.10