simulacrum3
0x2843d543c60a54106f572ab74f0e2e04f293b3d2
- Realised P&L
- $-8.7k
- Volume
- $982.2k
- Markets traded
- 2,535
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,535
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$636.20at 0.364Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
- +$607.86at 0.110Emam Ashour: 4+ shots
- +$587.50at 0.606US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$569.71at 0.140Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
- +$564.60at 0.334Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:47 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $38.78 |
| 11-01 17:40 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $119.26 |
| 11-01 01:54 | UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.72 | $21.59 |
| 10-31 17:41 | UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.52 | $15.01 |
| 10-29 17:55 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.966398 | $96.64 |
| 10-28 04:05 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $43.20 |
| 10-26 13:26 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4489042954 | $5.96 |
| 10-26 13:10 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.1115686275 | $28.45 |
| 10-25 20:17 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.467 | $46.70 |
| 10-25 01:22 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.0023449796 | $0.56 |
| 10-24 04:31 | UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.36 | $14.40 |
| 10-24 04:30 | UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.43 | $17.20 |
| 10-24 04:29 | UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 10-24 04:28 | UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 10-24 04:28 | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.54 | $21.60 |