PolyBot

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Traders

simulacrum3

0x2843d543c60a54106f572ab74f0e2e04f293b3d2

Realised P&L
$-8.7k
Volume
$982.2k
Markets traded
2,535
Open portfolio
$2.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,535
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes0.7530.910$388.72+$67.04
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.6120.655$362.50+$23.81
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.7360.825$207.50+$22.30
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7600.914$182.80+$30.80
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.4360.285$139.24−$73.84
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? · Yes0.6700.695$123.71+$4.45
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8000.645$96.75−$23.25
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.8700.885$88.50+$1.50
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026? · No0.8720.850$85.00−$2.20
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes0.4000.370$74.00−$6.00
Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes0.7080.180$54.43−$159.66
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2400.265$47.70+$4.50
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6300.140$41.85−$147.15
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? · Yes0.5820.160$40.00−$105.50
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026? · Yes0.4200.430$39.70+$0.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:47Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?BUY0.42$38.78
11-01 17:40Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?BUY0.67$119.26
11-01 01:54UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.72$21.59
10-31 17:41UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)BUY0.52$15.01
10-29 17:55Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?SELL0.966398$96.64
10-28 04:05Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$43.20
10-26 13:26Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.4489042954$5.96
10-26 13:10Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?BUY0.1115686275$28.45
10-25 20:17Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.467$46.70
10-25 01:22Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?SELL0.0023449796$0.56
10-24 04:31UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)BUY0.36$14.40
10-24 04:30UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)BUY0.43$17.20
10-24 04:29UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)BUY0.5$20.00
10-24 04:28UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)BUY0.48$24.00
10-24 04:28UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)BUY0.54$21.60