welder
0x413f234ecb0349df61c90088c5bef78b42162a15
- Realised P&L
- $549.08
- Volume
- $265.5k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $428.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.200 | $400.00 | −$42.62 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.190 | 0.130 | $13.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.185 | $11.77 | +$0.95 |
| Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.003 | $2.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.013 | $0.76 | −$1.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.82 |
| Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.198Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?
- +$356.40at 0.190Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?
- +$136.89at 0.120GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
- +$76.10at 0.379Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?
- +$42.59at 0.017Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 16:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.029 | $1.75 |
| 09-14 12:51 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 09-10 22:56 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.199 | $9.95 |
| 09-09 16:52 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.90 |
| 08-16 18:11 | Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 08-05 20:40 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2498133 | $99.93 |
| 07-19 21:20 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2975 | $110.07 |
| 07-08 18:15 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $29.88 |
| 07-03 12:56 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 10:36 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.90 |
| 06-28 12:16 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.17 | $6.80 |
| 06-27 18:35 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $156.13 |
| 06-14 20:55 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 22:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $0.80 |
| 06-09 21:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |