Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.14. down 0.14 over the period, from 0.28. Range 0.12 to 0.41. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.15	474	474
0.16	674	1,148
0.17	280	1,428
0.18	75	1,503
0.20	50	1,553
0.21	102	1,654
0.22	50	1,704
0.30	20	1,724
0.38	20	1,744
0.39	50	1,794
0.40	114	1,908
0.41	506	2,414

Spread0.01Mid0.15

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.14	1,380	1,380
0.13	754	2,134
0.12	40	2,174
0.11	100	2,274
0.10	71	2,345
0.09	236	2,581
0.08	1,050	3,631
0.07	234	3,865
0.06	172	4,037
0.05	100	4,137
0.04	125	4,262
0.03	629	4,891

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.86	1,380	1,380
0.87	754	2,134
0.88	40	2,174
0.89	100	2,274
0.90	71	2,345
0.91	236	2,581
0.92	1,050	3,631
0.93	234	3,865
0.94	172	4,037
0.95	100	4,137
0.96	125	4,262
0.97	629	4,891

Spread0.01Mid0.85

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.85	474	474
0.84	674	1,148
0.83	280	1,428
0.82	75	1,503
0.80	50	1,553
0.79	102	1,654
0.78	50	1,704
0.70	20	1,724
0.62	20	1,744
0.61	50	1,794
0.60	114	1,908
0.59	506	2,414

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
InterestingUser	Yes	1,174.49
Mr.Frog🐸	Yes	839.27
totti82	Yes	444.44
ultra-poverty	Yes	243
molodoyy	Yes	195.06
GuyFromTinder	Yes	189.65
tradetosurvive1	Yes	141
Johnny-Worker	Yes	109
pppnn	Yes	100.01
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	100
from00	Yes	100
Agecanonix	Yes	100
balthazar	Yes	83.95
AJSV	Yes	65.26
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	63
NoTeacher	Yes	51.72
Juzy	Yes	50
fvfvwww	Yes	50
Kingspp	Yes	50
gavinfunda	Yes	50

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
08:57:27	SELL	Yes	0.14	10	$1.40
16:25:24	SELL	Yes	0.14	30	$4.20
14:54:13	SELL	Yes	0.14	20	$2.80
14:50:43	BUY	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
09:01:03	SELL	Yes	0.15	32	$4.79
09:00:58	SELL	Yes	0.15	32	$4.79
08:38:25	SELL	Yes	0.15	68	$10.20
07:38:51	SELL	Yes	0.16	50	$8.00
07:38:24	BUY	No	0.82	50	$41.00
07:38:24	SELL	Yes	0.1962588206	652	$127.94
03:37:45	SELL	No	0.79	50	$39.50
01:33:03	SELL	No	0.79	10	$7.99
21:10:55	SELL	No	0.8	12	$9.60
20:47:24	SELL	No	0.79	49	$38.50
20:44:58	BUY	Yes	0.2057854896	102	$20.93
20:33:31	SELL	No	0.82	55	$45.10
20:33:07	SELL	No	0.82	50	$41.00
20:22:39	BUY	Yes	0.16	200	$32.00
20:10:52	BUY	Yes	0.1407863176	639	$90.00
20:10:52	BUY	Yes	0.15	50	$7.50
14:48:24	SELL	Yes	0.12	32	$3.83
14:48:21	SELL	Yes	0.13	62	$8.00
13:52:24	SELL	Yes	0.13	50	$6.50
13:37:49	SELL	Yes	0.13	13	$1.68
12:22:45	SELL	Yes	0.133	50	$6.65