Mr.Frog🐸
0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a
- Realised P&L
- $6.3k
- Volume
- $3.93M
- Markets traded
- 1,892
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,892
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.4kat 0.102Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
- +$3.5kat 0.341US military action against Iran before July?
- +$2.7kat 0.182Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.460Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
- +$1.8kat 0.303Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:50 | Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.0040741149 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 17:23 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.0793563375 | $63.49 |
| 09-17 14:34 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $62.00 |
| 09-17 10:08 | Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $120.00 |
| 09-17 07:14 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 09-17 07:13 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.7347595745 | $69.07 |
| 09-16 20:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-16 20:12 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 09-16 20:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1407863176 | $90.00 |
| 09-16 20:06 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | SELL | 0.04 | $8.52 |
| 09-16 16:29 | NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? | SELL | 0.1074531626 | $19.21 |
| 09-16 15:08 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 15:08 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $75.00 |
| 09-16 12:49 | NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? | SELL | 0.140628 | $28.13 |
| 09-16 12:12 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |