PolyBot

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Traders

Mr.Frog🐸

0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a

Realised P&L
$5.3k
Volume
$4.04M
Markets traded
2,092
Open portfolio
$5.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,092
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No0.6020.780$514.74+$117.26
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · No0.6480.825$372.07+$79.85
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · No0.5590.760$338.08+$89.52
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No0.5180.545$332.99+$16.28
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? · No0.1730.155$261.79−$30.16
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7200.745$223.50+$7.50
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.3840.395$217.25+$6.25
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes0.6150.713$213.90+$29.39
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · No0.2050.370$204.52+$91.34
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? · No0.5380.655$196.50+$35.18
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? · No0.4940.310$156.55−$92.95
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? · No0.5800.570$153.33−$2.64
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · No0.5710.690$149.03+$25.79
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes0.0870.151$145.34+$61.09
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? · No0.6470.295$139.83−$166.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:41Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?SELL0.16$12.96
11-01 20:55Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.4$40.00
11-01 15:48Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?BUY0.013$6.50
11-01 15:48Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.018$5.40
11-01 15:45Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.018$9.00
11-01 13:55Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?SELL0.19$114.00
11-01 11:33Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.38$95.00
11-01 10:39Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.38$76.00
11-01 09:52Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?BUY0.22$39.82
11-01 09:51Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?BUY0.22$110.00
10-31 19:22U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.553$55.30
10-31 18:59Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.66$66.00
10-31 18:57Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.5798141264$155.97
10-31 18:54Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.14$42.00
10-31 18:54Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.3$42.90