PolyBot

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Traders

Mr.Frog🐸

0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a

Realised P&L
$6.3k
Volume
$3.93M
Markets traded
1,892
Open portfolio
$4.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,892
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · No0.6480.695$452.44+$30.64
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? · No0.1580.190$425.53+$72.23
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No0.0540.181$417.57+$294.05
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026? · No0.4380.935$355.30+$189.01
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · No0.1050.190$264.23+$117.92
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.0920.080$238.51$38.83
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No0.5370.560$217.27+$8.94
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · No0.2010.225$190.15+$19.69
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? · Yes0.1290.130$170.55+$1.55
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · No0.5710.635$137.15+$13.91
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2140.245$122.50+$15.22
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1450.145$121.69$0.30
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No0.3270.375$112.50+$14.50
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · No0.1820.070$110.16$175.83
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? · Yes0.0330.030$91.50$8.23

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 19:50Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?BUY0.0040741149$2.00
09-17 17:23Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.0793563375$63.49
09-17 14:34Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.31$62.00
09-17 10:08Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?SELL0.24$120.00
09-17 07:14Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?SELL0.7$21.00
09-17 07:13Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?SELL0.7347595745$69.07
09-16 20:22Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.16$32.00
09-16 20:12Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.36$36.00
09-16 20:10Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1407863176$90.00
09-16 20:06Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?SELL0.04$8.52
09-16 16:29NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?SELL0.1074531626$19.21
09-16 15:08Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?BUY0.15$30.00
09-16 15:08Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?BUY0.15$75.00
09-16 12:49NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?SELL0.140628$28.13
09-16 12:12Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?BUY0.19$19.00