Mr.Frog🐸
0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a
- Realised P&L
- $5.3k
- Volume
- $4.04M
- Markets traded
- 2,092
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,092
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.4kat 0.102Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
- +$3.5kat 0.341US military action against Iran before July?
- +$2.7kat 0.182Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.460Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
- +$1.8kat 0.303Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:41 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $12.96 |
| 11-01 20:55 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 15:48 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.013 | $6.50 |
| 11-01 15:48 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.018 | $5.40 |
| 11-01 15:45 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.018 | $9.00 |
| 11-01 13:55 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $114.00 |
| 11-01 11:33 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.38 | $95.00 |
| 11-01 10:39 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 11-01 09:52 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $39.82 |
| 11-01 09:51 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $110.00 |
| 10-31 19:22 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.553 | $55.30 |
| 10-31 18:59 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $66.00 |
| 10-31 18:57 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5798141264 | $155.97 |
| 10-31 18:54 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $42.00 |
| 10-31 18:54 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $42.90 |