ultra-poverty
0x810f548651551a1e171c8d7279bd29ed68b057aa
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $77.5k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$859.40at 0.370Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
- +$829.99at 0.170Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
- +$584.09at 0.226Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$362.81at 0.546Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
- +$342.06at 0.727Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 08:48 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5388480031 | $84.05 |
| 09-22 08:25 | Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 09-22 08:25 | Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-21 14:35 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2195 | $21.95 |
| 09-21 14:34 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-18 21:30 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.668828125 | $171.22 |
| 09-18 16:31 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.0848218655 | $58.86 |
| 09-18 16:30 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.6469165974 | $225.79 |
| 09-18 14:41 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $9.58 |
| 09-18 14:40 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.0686443331 | $4.38 |
| 09-18 14:39 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.1252140565 | $32.00 |
| 09-17 11:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.47 |
| 09-17 11:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.537 | $13.43 |
| 09-16 13:25 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.0492791002 | $36.19 |
| 09-16 13:15 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.552 | $13.80 |