Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-25
Rewards: 50 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.62. up 0.35 over the period, from 0.27. Range 0.27 to 0.70. 29 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.65	100	100
0.66	50	150
0.68	7	157
0.73	5	162
0.74	169	331
0.75	500	831
0.84	500	1,331
0.90	51	1,382
0.94	10	1,392
0.95	315	1,707
0.96	525	2,232
0.98	58	2,290

Spread0.06Mid0.62

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.59	105	105
0.58	100	205
0.52	195	400
0.51	760	1,160
0.50	138	1,298
0.49	30	1,328
0.47	20	1,348
0.28	2,850	4,198
0.27	494	4,692
0.25	5,289	9,981
0.06	10	9,991
0.05	500	10,491

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.41	105	105
0.42	100	205
0.48	195	400
0.49	760	1,160
0.50	138	1,298
0.51	30	1,328
0.53	20	1,348
0.72	2,850	4,198
0.73	494	4,692
0.75	5,289	9,981
0.94	10	9,991
0.95	500	10,491

Spread0.06Mid0.38

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.35	100	100
0.34	50	150
0.32	7	157
0.27	5	162
0.26	169	331
0.25	500	831
0.16	500	1,331
0.10	51	1,382
0.06	10	1,392
0.05	315	1,707
0.04	525	2,232
0.02	58	2,290

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
molodoyy	Yes	1,000
Dondigidin	Yes	200
SingletonFamilyFund	Yes	149.05
johnthek	Yes	131.16
Blackwaterddd	Yes	102.04
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	93
GidGud	Yes	50
nicholas19	Yes	48.89
0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yes	30.69
ultra-poverty	Yes	25
balabalababalabala	Yes	20
likeajj	Yes	20
nbs8	Yes	20
fastpeter	Yes	19.99
0x11b7…4b0f	Yes	19.61
0x45e606f7849330AdAd37875f835FBdD1B7868FCa-1775496679263	Yes	5.49
Tiechuiliu	Yes	5.05
flywheelpoly	No	700
K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE	No	235.67
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No	200

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
21:47:07	SELL	Yes	0.6	100	$59.75
21:29:31	SELL	Yes	0.64	49	$31.29
20:21:33	SELL	No	0.38	27	$10.13
20:13:19	BUY	No	0.34	50	$17.00
20:13:19	BUY	No	0.3299999997	91	$30.00
15:12:41	SELL	Yes	0.55	0	$0.08
15:03:14	SELL	No	0.42	12	$5.04
14:50:47	SELL	No	0.42	38	$15.90
14:38:45	BUY	No	0.4243305466	236	$100.00
13:51:21	SELL	No	0.41	20	$8.20
13:15:46	BUY	Yes	0.552	25	$13.80
12:54:36	SELL	No	0.45	20	$9.00
12:07:03	BUY	Yes	0.55	200	$110.00
11:27:48	SELL	No	0.47	212	$99.64
11:03:12	BUY	Yes	0.52	20	$10.40
11:01:24	SELL	No	0.48	100	$48.00
10:55:16	BUY	Yes	0.52	5	$2.63
10:54:55	BUY	Yes	0.5166689539	131	$67.77
10:54:54	BUY	Yes	0.5099999144	5	$2.80
10:54:52	SELL	No	0.49	20	$9.80
10:54:49	BUY	Yes	0.5099999776	20	$10.00
10:54:49	BUY	Yes	0.506163	1,000	$506.16
10:54:49	BUY	Yes	0.51	20	$10.20
10:54:49	BUY	Yes	0.5099999933	21	$10.60
10:32:45	BUY	Yes	0.5	149	$74.53