Blackwaterddd
0xe09ef8a63bf7feb1d67aa9f77bb9845077dfdeb3
- Realised P&L
- $-926.87
- Volume
- $83.7k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire before the midterms? · No | 0.689 | 0.905 | $639.49 | +$152.47 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.468 | 0.395 | $469.34 | −$86.16 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $15.00 | −$14.97 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.405 | $4.05 | +$0.45 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.345 | $3.45 | −$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$625.49at 0.359Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- +$199.00at 0.509Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?
- +$167.62at 0.551Trump renames AI by December 31?
- +$108.98at 0.615Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$54.13at 0.657Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 20:36 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 10-30 18:13 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $426.61 |
| 10-30 18:09 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $114.01 |
| 10-30 18:08 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $6.42 |
| 10-30 18:08 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $3.74 |
| 10-30 18:07 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.57 |
| 10-30 02:47 | Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $59.76 |
| 10-30 00:26 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.406 | $2.09 |
| 10-29 21:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.027 | $0.94 |
| 10-29 19:38 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.028 | $7.02 |
| 10-27 21:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 10-27 20:54 | Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.95 |
| 10-26 19:14 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.50 |
| 10-19 16:26 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 10-16 20:47 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |