otlthealt
0xa68b7c78dbedd4185d498685671639db0e7bc4b4
- Realised P&L
- $-473.98
- Volume
- $19.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $198.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.930 | $64.80 | +$0.00 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.044 | $53.82 | +$49.71 |
| Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee? · No | 0.283 | 0.275 | $30.25 | −$0.88 |
| Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.762 | 0.812 | $28.43 | +$1.76 |
| Will DeepSeek be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.025 | $9.15 | +$4.90 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.229 | 0.306 | $8.39 | +$2.12 |
| Will Lise-Lotte Bensköld Olsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $3.93 | −$0.25 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$438.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.76 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.59at 0.849Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$2.90at 0.710Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?
- +$2.50at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20?
- +$0.95at 0.890Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$0.05at 0.993Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 11:50 | Will Lise-Lotte Bensköld Olsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? | BUY | 0.76 | $4.18 |
| 08-10 11:46 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2913333333 | $4.37 |
| 08-10 07:04 | Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $64.80 |
| 08-10 06:32 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2289999851 | $9.70 |
| 08-09 12:41 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | SELL | 0.758 | $8.86 |
| 08-09 11:35 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | BUY | 0.8551447743 | $10.00 |
| 08-09 09:04 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.0096535667 | $4.76 |
| 08-04 04:57 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $12.45 |
| 08-04 03:57 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 08-03 17:04 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.769999989 | $15.41 |
| 08-03 17:04 | Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.2899999744 | $7.24 |
| 08-03 16:48 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $10.20 |
| 08-03 16:48 | Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.2812030284 | $28.13 |
| 08-03 11:14 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0026921701 | $0.48 |
| 08-03 11:11 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0034683095 | $3.62 |