ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
- Realised P&L
- $-167.5k
- Volume
- $504.75M
- Markets traded
- 45,012
- Open portfolio
- $1.40M
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded45,012
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$317.6kat 0.575Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$292.8kat 0.439Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$209.4kat 0.973No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$178.5kat 0.875Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$174.9kat 0.786No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 15:11 | Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.28 |
| 08-02 15:09 | Will anyone say "Gun" during President Curtis E2 S1? | SELL | 0.43 | $0.64 |
| 08-02 15:09 | Will anyone say "Black" during President Curtis E2 S1? | SELL | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 08-02 15:09 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $10.60 |
| 08-02 15:05 | Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by August 31? | SELL | 0.252522 | $12.63 |
| 08-02 15:04 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 08-02 15:01 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by August 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $27.90 |
| 08-02 15:00 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by August 31? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 08-02 15:00 | Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary? | SELL | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 08-02 15:00 | Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 08-02 15:00 | Will Jack Grealish join Everton? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 08-02 15:00 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? | SELL | 0.082 | $3.79 |
| 08-02 14:59 | Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain? | SELL | 0.29 | $8.17 |
| 08-02 14:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.12 |
| 08-02 14:58 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $152 in August? | SELL | 0.886 | $26.58 |