PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418

Realised P&L
$-167.5k
Volume
$504.75M
Markets traded
45,012
Open portfolio
$1.40M

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded45,012
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.792$277.4k+$102.4k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No0.9060.865$163.3k$7.7k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · No0.9740.969$111.5k$544.75
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.9550.958$74.7k+$186.03
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.207$72.6k$102.4k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.8030.775$51.2k$1.9k
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · No0.9731.000$38.6k+$1.0k
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No0.9971.000$33.4k+$99.10
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · No0.5430.760$26.8k+$7.7k
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · No0.9500.895$22.1k$1.4k
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? · No0.7100.760$21.7k+$1.4k
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? · No0.9821.000$19.7k+$337.47
Fed rate hike in 2026? · No0.3430.325$17.9k$1.0k
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · No0.7640.865$16.8k+$2.0k
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? · No0.9620.979$15.3k+$256.47

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 15:11Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?SELL0.19$2.28
08-02 15:09Will anyone say "Gun" during President Curtis E2 S1?SELL0.43$0.64
08-02 15:09Will anyone say "Black" during President Curtis E2 S1?SELL0.75$3.75
08-02 15:09Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?SELL0.95$10.60
08-02 15:05Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by August 31?SELL0.252522$12.63
08-02 15:04Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?SELL0.5$2.50
08-02 15:01Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by August 31?SELL0.93$27.90
08-02 15:00Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by August 31?SELL0.02$0.40
08-02 15:00Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?SELL0.92$18.40
08-02 15:00Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?SELL0.28$1.40
08-02 15:00Will Jack Grealish join Everton?SELL0.48$9.60
08-02 15:00Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?SELL0.082$3.79
08-02 14:59Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?SELL0.29$8.17
08-02 14:58Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026?SELL0.1$1.12
08-02 14:58Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $152 in August?SELL0.886$26.58