PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

GidGud

0x4867293b553c91c8f35a8fd811660d23c353a6f8

Realised P&L
$-20.0k
Volume
$3.59M
Markets traded
2,022
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,022
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration60.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · No0.5500.505$459.09$40.91
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No0.5800.445$380.82$115.53
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · No0.7400.485$327.70$172.30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.9200.875$218.75$11.25
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No0.5530.355$201.10$112.16
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · No0.9310.554$145.33$98.89
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5400.425$109.85$29.72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? · Yes0.6600.475$71.97$28.03
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · No0.9300.920$46.00$0.50
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No0.8800.815$40.75$3.25
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.8300.805$40.25$1.25
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026? · Yes0.7300.725$36.25$0.25
Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? · Yes0.9080.629$31.48$13.93
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No0.8400.835$21.46$0.13
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · No0.8900.665$13.30$4.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 14:48US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?SELL0.88$463.15
09-18 07:27Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 14 2026?SELL0.01$0.15
09-17 23:18Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?SELL0.909$0.01
09-17 21:38US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?SELL0.05$26.32
09-17 21:07Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.55$245.53
09-17 20:07Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?SELL0.66$3.52
09-17 19:01Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.888$0.01
09-17 16:41Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?SELL0.0731096$3.66
09-17 05:49WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on September 17?SELL0.87$17.40
09-16 17:12Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026?SELL0.94$1.15
09-16 15:12Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?SELL0.55$0.08
09-15 23:34Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?SELL0.91$3.87
09-15 19:28Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?SELL0.64$225.35
09-15 18:03Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?SELL0.091$5.00
09-15 00:48Will “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?SELL0.87$1.08