SingletonFamilyFund
0x4c4ed674fde7dc998036b3ae92445d00fcdb297b
- Realised P&L
- $9.2k
- Volume
- $734.7k
- Markets traded
- 451
- Open portfolio
- $11.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded451
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.0kat 0.217Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.246Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$988.15at 0.320Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$798.34at 0.348Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
- +$765.73at 0.744Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:55 | Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election? | BUY | 0.44 | $13.20 |
| 11-01 08:45 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 04:53 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election? | BUY | 0.43 | $222.94 |
| 10-31 22:00 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.63 | $68.04 |
| 10-31 21:45 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.58449 | $292.25 |
| 10-31 21:34 | Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.69 | $536.13 |
| 10-31 21:30 | Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1109886619 | $63.14 |
| 10-31 21:26 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election? | BUY | 0.3949942866 | $672.16 |
| 10-31 10:12 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.59 | $117.99 |
| 10-31 08:14 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.45 | $13.50 |
| 10-31 07:59 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999992 | $19.90 |
| 10-31 07:55 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.17 |
| 10-31 07:53 | Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.9496316566 | $77.21 |
| 10-31 07:52 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.18 | $68.53 |
| 10-31 07:52 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.21 | $97.82 |