PolyBot

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Traders

SingletonFamilyFund

0x4c4ed674fde7dc998036b3ae92445d00fcdb297b

Realised P&L
$9.2k
Volume
$734.7k
Markets traded
451
Open portfolio
$11.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded451
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration73.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.4720.535$1.2k+$145.67
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election? · Yes0.4030.465$1.0k+$137.28
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.4910.635$897.98+$203.61
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? · No0.6750.675$865.77+$0.37
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? · Yes0.4060.275$687.50−$327.33
Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.6900.755$586.63+$50.51
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.2800.285$570.00+$10.00
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes0.7800.805$419.63+$12.95
Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026? · Yes0.5440.775$377.32+$112.32
Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election? · Yes0.4750.430$336.54−$35.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4000.415$252.74+$9.19
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · No0.7800.805$247.69+$7.69
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026? · Yes0.3940.710$247.46+$109.96
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.6040.725$239.22+$40.01
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No0.5480.855$213.75+$76.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 08:55Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?BUY0.44$13.20
11-01 08:45Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?SELL0.55$1.2k
11-01 04:53Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?BUY0.43$222.94
10-31 22:00Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?SELL0.63$68.04
10-31 21:45Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?SELL0.58449$292.25
10-31 21:34Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.69$536.13
10-31 21:30Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.1109886619$63.14
10-31 21:26Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?BUY0.3949942866$672.16
10-31 10:12Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.59$117.99
10-31 08:14Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?BUY0.45$13.50
10-31 07:59Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.1399999992$19.90
10-31 07:55Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?BUY0.89$89.17
10-31 07:53Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?SELL0.9496316566$77.21
10-31 07:52Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?BUY0.18$68.53
10-31 07:52Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?BUY0.21$97.82