PolyBot

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Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-11-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.984. up 0.005 over the period, from 0.979. Range 0.978 to 0.985. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.989100100
0.990143243
0.997336579
0.9984831,062
0.9991551,217

Spread0.011Mid0.984

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.978610610
0.9694001,010
0.9681361,145
0.9617001,845
0.7363002,145
0.735682,213
0.7344092,622
0.7334853,107
0.481453,152
0.4802003,352
0.400623,414
0.288813,495

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.022610610
0.0314001,010
0.0321361,145
0.0397001,845
0.2643002,145
0.265682,213
0.2664092,622
0.2674853,107
0.519453,152
0.5202003,352
0.600623,414
0.712813,495

Spread0.011Mid0.017

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.011100100
0.010143243
0.003336579
0.0024831,062
0.0011551,217

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
thoodrYes1,939.12
yoyobb2018Yes421.85
parameter1Yes157.8
momo513Yes142.31
NeevSYes95.26
lihpareYes45.45
0xfec464f25Ce66AaEb9Bd4Ecb94b7184520bCCFc8-1741783184737Yes20.1
Tom1999Yes20
sand1Yes19.99
DegovnerdYes12.82
MoonNight123Yes6
pinnerYes3.95
GuyFromTinderYes2.68
gkeeganYes2.3
0xd0608A36fcFC610512e3334Aea064D4820449fEC-1772053200769Yes2.04
pootytherewardfarmerYes1
PoivreNo1,169.81
Dr.PNLNo600
0xB03D1e6D6C71DFf6D80F65924Fc479d9518CcaFe-1773612234989No157.31
Numitus1994No135.72

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
06:41:39BUYNo0.021999999745$1.00
00:33:34SELLYes0.9722334678235$228.91
23:08:51SELLYes0.96910$10.09
19:49:48SELLNo0.0122947171192$2.36
19:49:37SELLNo0.0172100$1.72
19:49:36SELLNo0.019721761,000$19.72
19:49:34BUYYes0.983504705361$59.57
09:58:03BUYYes0.9679099586111$107.50
15:16:48SELLNo0.0413$0.50
15:07:13SELLYes0.94350$47.15
15:00:31SELLYes0.95229$28.07
14:57:28SELLYes0.95729$28.22
14:57:07SELLYes0.96037580$76.83
14:54:43BUYNo0.0376960103157$5.93
12:54:06SELLYes0.978$7.65
12:54:04SELLYes0.9710$9.55
05:05:12SELLNo0.0230$0.60
05:04:19SELLNo0.02130$0.63
02:43:55SELLYes0.9501376564141$133.63
01:26:04SELLNo0.0217$0.16
01:09:48SELLNo0.0327$0.24
01:09:46SELLNo0.0327$0.24
16:41:31SELLNo0.0327$0.24
15:36:01BUYYes0.96730$29.01
15:35:57BUYYes0.966690721697$93.77