PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

thoodr

0x3eae57986be5e0ca435102ffe1f14206ffa2e2ed

Realised P&L
$77.0k
Volume
$8.20M
Markets traded
613
Open portfolio
$1.43M

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded613
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8790.945$198.4k+$13.8k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.9730.991$93.7k+$1.6k
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No0.9820.991$70.0k+$600.90
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes0.9210.962$66.1k+$2.8k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8180.835$65.1k+$1.3k
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.9520.984$57.0k+$1.9k
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8170.745$54.8k$5.3k
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No0.9770.989$51.0k+$592.69
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9750.984$46.1k+$383.75
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No0.8610.805$45.7k$3.2k
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No0.9220.889$43.5k$1.6k
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.9570.968$38.5k+$431.42
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8820.945$38.4k+$2.5k
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No0.9480.955$26.8k+$191.55
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · Yes0.9160.928$24.3k+$336.48

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 03:08Will the Senate pass the Clarity Act by October 31?BUY0.91$910.00
09-17 03:07Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat?BUY0.96$1.9k
09-17 02:49Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?BUY0.8948767636$492.18
09-17 02:34US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?BUY0.969$1.9k
09-17 02:33Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$900.00
09-17 02:33Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.93$930.00
09-17 02:32Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.92$644.00
09-17 02:31Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsBUY0.6$120.00
09-17 02:29Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.82$246.00
09-17 02:28Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026?BUY0.9949190254$249.91
09-17 02:25Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?BUY0.915$91.50
09-17 02:25Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?BUY0.94$282.00
09-17 02:23Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026BUY0.95$2.4k
09-17 02:22Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?BUY0.9218276048$1.9k
09-17 02:21Yoon out of custody before 2027?BUY0.932795688$1.2k