PolyBot

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Traders

Tom1999

0x3b2422f0624a2dbea3d9c0304f0bd86e08991738

Realised P&L
$42.71
Volume
$7.2k
Markets traded
69
Open portfolio
$94.76

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded69
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample40 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.5800.465$32.55−$8.05
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.8100.975$30.48+$5.15
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · Yes0.1000.170$17.00+$7.00
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes0.1430.124$13.64−$2.14
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes0.0800.041$1.09−$1.07
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00−$2.75
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$13.50
Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$4.60
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? · Yes0.6700.000$0.00−$20.10
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$3.20
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00−$1.04
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? · Yes0.1060.000$0.00−$3.10
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$10.80
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes0.1440.000$0.00−$14.40
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00−$2.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 16:55Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?BUY0.78$23.40
10-16 16:54Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?BUY0.027$1.35
10-16 16:53Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?BUY0.026$1.30
10-13 14:11US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?BUY0.1$10.00
10-13 13:22Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?BUY0.09$13.50
10-13 13:21Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.2$40.00
10-13 13:17Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.58$40.60
10-13 13:16Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.29$60.90
10-13 13:14Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?BUY0.1056386555$2.51
08-28 17:25Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.83$41.50
08-26 23:41Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?SELL0.56$5.04
08-13 22:44Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?BUY0.25$5.00
08-13 22:44Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.88$17.60
08-13 22:43Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$16.32
08-13 22:43Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$19.20