Tom1999
0x3b2422f0624a2dbea3d9c0304f0bd86e08991738
- Realised P&L
- $42.71
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $94.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.03at 0.505Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$70.20at 0.353Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$61.00at 0.390Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?
- +$48.76at 0.766Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?
- +$21.75at 0.689Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 16:55 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 10-16 16:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.35 |
| 10-16 16:53 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.30 |
| 10-13 14:11 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 13:22 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $13.50 |
| 10-13 13:21 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 10-13 13:17 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $40.60 |
| 10-13 13:16 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $60.90 |
| 10-13 13:14 | Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | BUY | 0.1056386555 | $2.51 |
| 08-28 17:25 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 08-26 23:41 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $5.04 |
| 08-13 22:44 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-13 22:44 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 08-13 22:43 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $16.32 |
| 08-13 22:43 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.20 |