gkeegan
0xc4a40ead48edb3760b6bb59291c8ee018f08a09c
- Realised P&L
- $-15.26
- Volume
- $188.28
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $10.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.959 | $5.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.984 | $2.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.015 | $1.72 | −$8.28 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.981 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.471 | 0.014 | $0.30 | −$9.70 |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.94at 0.630GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?
- +$2.81at 0.640Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.920Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 22:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $2.00 |
| 03-15 00:42 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 00:36 | Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.4711810782 | $10.00 |
| 03-15 00:34 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 00:32 | GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 00:18 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.00 |
| 03-14 23:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8499999405 | $5.00 |
| 03-08 15:19 | Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.2244094216 | $5.00 |
| 03-08 15:08 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |