PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xcdf82242c9984bd8d274085ab54165633c54b8ea

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
782
Open portfolio
$93.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded782
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9600.980$26.1k+$512.92
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9650.981$23.4k+$363.92
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9680.981$6.9k+$87.58
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · No0.9910.995$3.3k+$10.94
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9710.975$3.2k+$10.37
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No0.9060.905$2.9k−$3.55
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes0.8180.961$2.9k+$430.55
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9010.955$2.9k+$163.00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.9400.945$2.8k+$15.00
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · No0.9840.961$2.6k−$60.98
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9580.959$2.2k+$1.00
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9620.966$1.9k+$7.93
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9100.925$1.8k+$28.50
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9670.974$1.7k+$11.40
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · No0.9750.961$1.3k−$19.08

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 06:46Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.969$9.69
11-02 01:15Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.961$12.49
11-02 01:14Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?BUY0.91$8.19
11-01 12:35Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.991$9.91
11-01 12:34Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9599833333$287.99
11-01 03:20Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.962$11.54
11-01 03:17Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.991$9.91
10-31 05:50Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.9$8.10
10-31 05:47Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$28.79
10-30 15:29Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?BUY0.875$11.00
10-30 15:28Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?SELL0.112$11.20
10-30 05:03Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.973$66.16
10-30 05:02Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.952$95.19
10-30 05:00Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.5417659333$162.53
10-30 03:41Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.973$145.95