Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: ..
Rewards: 100 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.036. down 0.040 over the period, from 0.076. Range 0.018 to 0.144. 152 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.038	200	200
0.039	681	881
0.041	100	981
0.042	1,025	2,006
0.045	209	2,216
0.046	210	2,425
0.048	520	2,946
0.049	421	3,366
0.053	3,547	6,913
0.056	1,587	8,501
0.058	212	8,713
0.059	213	8,925

Spread0.004Mid0.036

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.034	16	16
0.033	12	28
0.032	314	343
0.029	10	353
0.028	1,700	2,053
0.027	320	2,373
0.026	210	2,583
0.025	395	2,978
0.024	620	3,598
0.023	421	4,018
0.016	1,758	5,776
0.013	213	5,989

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.966	16	16
0.967	12	28
0.968	314	343
0.971	10	353
0.972	1,700	2,053
0.973	320	2,373
0.974	210	2,583
0.975	395	2,978
0.976	620	3,598
0.977	421	4,018
0.984	1,758	5,776
0.987	213	5,989

Spread0.004Mid0.964

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.962	200	200
0.961	681	881
0.959	100	981
0.958	1,025	2,006
0.955	209	2,216
0.954	210	2,425
0.952	520	2,946
0.951	421	3,366
0.947	3,547	6,913
0.944	1,587	8,501
0.942	212	8,713
0.941	213	8,925

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
DuneMentat	Yes	1,885.46
dahua	Yes	1,000.03
fledger	Yes	681.31
longdated-poli	Yes	680.01
doubtit	Yes	492.47
blxx	Yes	430.78
0x8c07…2967	Yes	401
LornaPredicts	Yes	328.06
lightshield	Yes	300
predictdogepepewif	Yes	300
thecaricature	Yes	299.97
JoeMama4Evah	Yes	285.68
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	237.9
0x483aA3daA586A0EaE14A6168b160c7CE01D88e08-1778807632997	Yes	200.39
90.130	Yes	184.21
planktonXD	Yes	173.2
paprikc	Yes	129.87
Pre-rich-dude	Yes	100
BSS37	Yes	100
0x9E5e6f2fF613e9513b2aaCfe584522ee1575dff2-1762617394239	Yes	87.33

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
05:45:55	SELL	No	0.9617078927	400	$384.67
13:44:51	BUY	Yes	0.035	30	$1.04
13:42:57	BUY	Yes	0.0328211332	652	$21.39
10:16:36	SELL	No	0.97	17	$16.92
09:58:06	BUY	Yes	0.014	216	$3.02
09:44:31	BUY	No	0.9859999992	13	$12.70
09:34:42	BUY	No	0.9859999996	5	$4.50
09:08:12	SELL	Yes	0.014	405	$5.68
09:02:48	SELL	Yes	0.0143636364	220	$3.16
09:02:46	SELL	Yes	0.027	371	$10.01
08:58:06	SELL	Yes	0.034	47	$1.60
03:18:46	SELL	No	0.9411498127	67	$62.82
03:18:45	SELL	No	0.9534971261	188	$179.16
03:18:00	SELL	No	0.966	16	$15.32
03:14:43	SELL	Yes	0.0311577283	395	$12.32
03:02:00	BUY	Yes	0.0449999997	78	$3.53
02:59:13	SELL	Yes	0.032	94	$3.02
02:58:48	SELL	Yes	0.0347889681	32	$1.12
02:58:46	SELL	Yes	0.036	32	$1.16
02:58:46	SELL	Yes	0.037	44	$1.62
02:58:24	SELL	Yes	0.037	23	$0.86
02:58:21	SELL	Yes	0.038	15	$0.56
02:58:19	SELL	Yes	0.038	15	$0.58
02:58:19	SELL	Yes	0.04	242	$9.68
02:57:57	SELL	Yes	0.042	177	$7.42