PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

lightshield

0xabff5678cb90ce2a9ca78e180b8c3be295cb6b73

Realised P&L
$-3.3k
Volume
$185.4k
Markets traded
454
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded454
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.7500.880$264.00+$39.00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No0.8200.805$241.50$4.50
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6900.765$229.50+$22.50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.3200.665$199.51+$103.50
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.1700.140$126.00$27.00
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30? · No0.6900.966$115.86+$33.06
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · No0.6700.675$115.36+$0.85
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%? · No0.8700.927$111.24+$6.84
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? · No0.4000.915$109.80+$61.80
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? · Yes0.4200.415$102.23$1.23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · No0.7000.335$100.50$109.50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.5900.835$100.20+$29.40
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · No0.7400.830$99.60+$10.80
Will TD Ierlan win the 2026 PLL Face-Off Player of the Year? · No0.7500.750$82.08+$0.00
Will Josh Allen have 21.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.7400.680$81.60$7.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-20 15:33Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?BUY0.33$52.36
08-14 23:21Will Travis Etienne Jr. have 1,174.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.79$94.80
08-14 23:03Will Trey McBride have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.69$82.80
08-14 22:59Will Puka Nacua have 3.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.74$88.80
08-14 22:46Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?SELL0.27$32.39
08-14 22:44Will Parker Washington have 949.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.69$82.80
08-10 16:14Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?SELL0.83$219.70
08-10 03:19Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.959$287.70
08-08 06:48Will John Nagel be the MN-05 Republican nominee?SELL0.18$54.00
08-08 01:20Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?SELL0.42$47.96
08-08 01:11Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?SELL0.1$26.63
08-06 07:57Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?SELL0.405$4.05
08-06 07:56Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?SELL0.41$2.05
08-06 07:55Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?SELL0.41$2.05
08-06 06:35Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?SELL0.6$72.00