PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x82ca0a78c209857c8ae48e3d6e809de6afe944c8

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
136
Open portfolio
$666.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded136
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration53.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? · Yes0.1100.060$136.38−$113.65
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.4640.435$111.47−$7.47
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? · Yes0.0900.075$82.50−$16.50
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.7460.999$64.83+$16.39
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.7300.951$64.25+$14.93
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.981$54.69+$2.82
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · No0.8900.930$54.16+$2.33
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.6300.974$45.58+$16.08
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0800.095$42.22+$6.67
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.036$10.28−$29.71
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00−$500.00
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$2.70
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0770.000$0.00−$54.00
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$15.96
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? · Yes0.0310.000$0.00−$67.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-20 02:01Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.185$59.85
10-08 01:01Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?SELL0.5501291375$80.94
10-04 01:08Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?SELL0.1326744186$11.41
09-19 03:46Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?SELL0.17$54.09
09-16 18:01Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.99$403.33
09-04 12:01Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.325$65.00
08-27 18:46Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?SELL0.1101061619$58.29
08-27 18:31Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?SELL0.14$0.79
08-23 13:35Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?BUY0.115974228$50.85
08-23 13:35Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?BUY0.68$100.05
08-23 13:35Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.1895327103$101.40
08-23 13:35Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.4641467317$118.94
08-18 12:01Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?SELL0.484712968$71.47
08-18 00:46Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?SELL0.43$3.44
08-17 20:16Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?SELL0.17$0.85