longdated-poli
0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
- Realised P&L
- $-46.1k
- Volume
- $5.41M
- Markets traded
- 3,021
- Open portfolio
- $10.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,021
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$593.55at 0.882Will Biden finish his term?
- +$587.41at 0.967Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
- +$550.00at 0.450Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
- +$533.66at 0.944Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$344.20at 0.516Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:37 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.0418663636 | $9.21 |
| 09-17 05:17 | Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9306830918 | $586.27 |
| 09-17 04:37 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.921 | $46.05 |
| 09-17 02:31 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.918 | $19.99 |
| 09-17 01:06 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.0357125432 | $1.76 |
| 09-17 00:46 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $85.80 |
| 09-17 00:46 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $85.80 |
| 09-17 00:46 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $85.80 |
| 09-17 00:42 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $356.40 |
| 09-17 00:21 | Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.9 | $41.29 |
| 09-17 00:21 | Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.9 | $70.80 |
| 09-17 00:19 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.7781427273 | $171.19 |
| 09-16 23:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3745963786 | $97.44 |
| 09-16 23:48 | Will the Republican Party win the NH-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.60 |
| 09-16 23:48 | Will John Healey be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | SELL | 0.86 | $123.88 |