longdated-poli
0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
- Realised P&L
- $-65.1k
- Volume
- $8.16M
- Markets traded
- 4,071
- Open portfolio
- $11.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,071
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$593.55at 0.882Will Biden finish his term?
- +$587.41at 0.967Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
- +$550.00at 0.450Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
- +$533.66at 0.944Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$340.00at 0.660Knicks vs. Hawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4101002273 | $90.22 |
| 11-01 23:06 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0710461746 | $12.11 |
| 11-01 22:18 | Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.954 | $20.03 |
| 11-01 22:18 | Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.957 | $28.71 |
| 11-01 22:03 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $4.62 |
| 11-01 21:55 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.076 | $2.69 |
| 11-01 21:55 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.082 | $0.73 |
| 11-01 21:55 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.076 | $1.36 |
| 11-01 21:20 | Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.42 | $4.17 |
| 11-01 21:11 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $468.60 |
| 11-01 20:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5702723182 | $125.46 |
| 11-01 20:42 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat? | SELL | 0.59 | $56.20 |
| 11-01 20:40 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? | SELL | 0.71 | $243.24 |
| 11-01 20:40 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $5.90 |
| 11-01 20:39 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $124.56 |