0x483aa3daa586a0eae14a6168b160c7ce01d88e08
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $37.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.022 | $14.97 | +$1.16 |
| Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.150 | 0.205 | $14.35 | +$3.85 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.036 | $7.21 | −$0.18 |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.171 | 0.235 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.25at 0.099Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
- +$3.49at 0.594Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.06at 0.895Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23?
- +$0.68at 0.815Spread: Belgium (-3.5)
- +$0.60at 0.746Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 00:24 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0256677741 | $7.73 |
| 10-24 10:22 | Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.50 |
| 10-24 09:46 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0938953722 | $46.67 |
| 10-24 09:43 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.26 |
| 10-23 11:32 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.10634 | $10.63 |
| 10-23 11:31 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.018 | $16.09 |
| 10-23 11:30 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.112 | $6.07 |
| 10-23 11:29 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.018 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 00:36 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0076177583 | $4.03 |
| 10-01 00:35 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 08:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2782101163 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 10:08 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.021 | $45.92 |
| 09-25 12:26 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1141814667 | $68.51 |
| 09-21 04:08 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.044 | $24.53 |
| 09-10 11:13 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0191948052 | $1.48 |