0xe01daa5b317f6ebd5ac17b29b840d4a028d46678
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $29.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.036 | $15.51 | −$31.46 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.032 | $14.40 | −$48.04 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? · Yes | 0.462 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.18at 0.033Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- +$4.82at 0.509Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30?
- +$-20.00at 0.209Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 21:59 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1090341882 | $46.97 |
| 09-25 21:58 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $40.00 |
| 11-30 11:20 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.44 |
| 11-27 19:39 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2652771106 | $20.00 |
| 06-22 19:45 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | BUY | 0.3399999827 | $12.15 |
| 06-22 13:35 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 06-22 06:58 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1519999887 | $10.00 |
| 04-02 20:26 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | SELL | 0.0439583806 | $32.14 |
| 03-23 11:52 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY | 0.0328250276 | $24.00 |
| 03-11 05:21 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | SELL | 0.037 | $8.04 |
| 03-07 01:06 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY | 0.0230000001 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 01:37 | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | BUY | 0.1899999908 | $15.00 |
| 02-28 13:07 | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 12:56 | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30? | BUY | 0.5089999869 | $5.00 |