Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-08-17
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.80. up 0.31 over the period, from 0.49. Range 0.47 to 0.87. 110 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.81	120	120
0.82	437	557
0.83	62	619
0.84	15	634
0.87	371	1,005
0.88	246	1,251
0.89	111	1,362
0.90	329	1,691
0.91	324	2,015
0.92	10	2,025
0.94	10	2,034
0.96	35	2,069

Spread0.02Mid0.80

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.79	136	136
0.78	279	415
0.77	5	420
0.75	100	520
0.70	10	530
0.69	72	603
0.66	15	618
0.65	15	632
0.64	25	658
0.63	160	818
0.54	120	938
0.49	30	968

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.21	136	136
0.22	279	415
0.23	5	420
0.25	100	520
0.30	10	530
0.31	72	603
0.34	15	618
0.35	15	632
0.36	25	658
0.37	160	818
0.46	120	938
0.51	30	968

Spread0.02Mid0.20

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.19	120	120
0.18	437	557
0.17	62	619
0.16	15	634
0.13	371	1,005
0.12	246	1,251
0.11	111	1,362
0.10	329	1,691
0.09	324	2,015
0.08	10	2,025
0.06	10	2,034
0.04	35	2,069

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
0x97CF8743dDF387dB269A76941B6aF1d26974c6eb-1769747285159	Yes	1,716.42
balthazar	Yes	700
0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787	Yes	624.95
vinii	Yes	452.24
0x6dd7…fc56	Yes	379.69
Vilmarprocopio	Yes	303.03
gotaluism	Yes	200
metametaman	Yes	189.19
0xaFA6Ab5Ce2D738cB93d624c9f6438dA12d44d54A-1772409331132	Yes	186.16
DRunestone24762	Yes	144.93
molodoyy	Yes	120.1
sand1	Yes	100
0x9687…1b7c	Yes	90
0x84d4…77a9	Yes	88.93
rphrr	Yes	80
Blurry-Ball	Yes	65.57
0x2ce44D4F13A816fb03834DF33799B6d7b16f0fE6-1778164126566	Yes	65.1
zephyrblue	Yes	64.1
bruhmare123	Yes	49.27
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yes	46.15

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
10:39:47	SELL	Yes	0.78	17	$13.10
09:59:48	BUY	Yes	0.8	146	$116.80
09:59:48	BUY	Yes	0.81	20	$16.20
09:03:57	BUY	Yes	0.79	5	$3.95
09:03:53	BUY	Yes	0.79	5	$3.95
09:00:11	SELL	No	0.21	20	$4.20
09:00:08	SELL	No	0.21	117	$24.53
08:53:24	SELL	No	0.21	0	$0.05
08:04:56	SELL	No	0.21	20	$4.20
08:04:54	SELL	No	0.22	20	$4.40
08:04:51	BUY	Yes	0.7799999978	64	$50.00
07:58:56	BUY	Yes	0.76	3	$2.00
07:58:56	BUY	No	0.25	8	$2.00
07:58:56	BUY	No	0.25	8	$2.00
07:55:35	BUY	Yes	0.7599999595	4	$3.00
07:49:30	BUY	No	0.25	8	$2.00
07:48:24	BUY	Yes	0.7599998024	3	$2.00
07:48:24	BUY	No	0.25	8	$2.00
07:47:11	BUY	Yes	0.7599998024	3	$2.00
07:46:00	BUY	No	0.25	8	$2.00
01:15:50	BUY	Yes	0.73	100	$73.00
00:41:44	BUY	No	0.28	8	$2.15
00:41:32	SELL	Yes	0.73	8	$5.61
00:39:17	BUY	No	0.26	8	$2.00
00:39:15	BUY	No	0.2599999272	8	$2.00