0x6dd781c0a7c05651e5e59c51c0c8a4128c82fc56
- Realised P&L
- $624.57
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $839.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.655 | $268.24 | +$68.24 |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.797 | 0.875 | $219.63 | +$19.64 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.870 | $153.54 | +$53.54 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.820 | $149.95 | +$16.40 |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.250 | $48.04 | −$51.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$140.80at 0.642Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$96.06at 0.850Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$71.20at 0.589Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?
- +$60.00at 0.725Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$-102.39at 0.540Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 06:42 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.4883762568 | $200.00 |
| 09-02 05:34 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.7309022191 | $130.00 |
| 09-02 05:33 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 09-01 12:28 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5271378362 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 05:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.5666401906 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 05:43 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.7967770369 | $200.00 |
| 09-01 05:41 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.5204170381 | $100.00 |
| 08-20 09:14 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? | BUY | 0.5767350921 | $100.00 |
| 08-17 19:23 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.7131474549 | $155.54 |
| 08-09 10:13 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.6293563979 | $247.40 |
| 08-03 08:22 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $243.00 |
| 07-01 12:04 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999597 | $2.11 |
| 07-01 12:03 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.8532059723 | $631.40 |
| 04-06 05:42 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $544.34 |