DRunestone24762
0x2d577efc9a87ccd0fb00dc98faa9557384164e09
- Realised P&L
- $-142.61
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $115.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.805 | $116.67 | +$16.67 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? · No | 0.547 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$154.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.86at 0.642Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$40.14at 0.790Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
- +$35.73at 0.713Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$31.72at 0.569Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$15.00at 0.750Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 00:02 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-08 15:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $106.72 |
| 07-03 13:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.5692410096 | $75.00 |
| 06-14 20:38 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.6414107139 | $137.00 |
| 05-30 09:50 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.712837867 | $88.70 |
| 05-11 09:29 | Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.6416123333 | $100.00 |
| 03-24 15:26 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7901718617 | $151.15 |
| 02-11 17:01 | Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.547404636 | $154.08 |
| 01-06 18:09 | Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 01-06 18:08 | Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | BUY | 0.1498127341 | $30.00 |
| 12-20 15:31 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $45.00 |
| 12-20 15:31 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4599999958 | $50.00 |