0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787
0xa2770432a5e6bd24c347c976b0d815db1f2c1182
- Realised P&L
- $671.81
- Volume
- $45.9k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $822.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.668 | 0.805 | $503.08 | +$85.47 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.827 | 0.928 | $280.38 | +$30.38 |
| Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.345 | $27.94 | +$12.31 |
| Did a propellant leak cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion? · No | 0.875 | 0.540 | $8.64 | −$5.36 |
| Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$257.84at 0.193Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?
- +$251.10at 0.544Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
- +$202.11at 0.790Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$127.80at 0.160Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?
- +$100.16at 0.666Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 07:53 | Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $160.09 |
| 08-03 07:23 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $210.42 |
| 08-03 02:20 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.3778137298 | $181.45 |
| 08-03 02:20 | Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.329999998 | $86.61 |
| 08-03 02:20 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $192.50 |
| 08-02 20:11 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $207.20 |
| 08-02 19:40 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $245.00 |
| 08-02 19:37 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.4560174485 | $219.01 |
| 08-02 11:01 | Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8274457386 | $250.00 |
| 07-31 16:44 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $902.93 |
| 07-30 06:02 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.0100961965 | $2.73 |
| 07-30 05:57 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.1386279128 | $121.72 |
| 07-30 04:31 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.281 | $13.44 |
| 07-30 04:30 | Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.944 | $20.29 |
| 07-30 04:23 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.2857428967 | $70.00 |