PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-11-01
Resolves by
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.993. up 0.373 over the period, from 0.620. Range 0.580 to 0.993. 162 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal

Spread—Mid—

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.985300300
0.98072372
0.975100472
0.965100572
0.955200772
0.91660832
0.8758840
0.8749849
0.87160909
0.87025934
0.86020954
0.751601,014

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.015300300
0.02072372
0.025100472
0.035100572
0.045200772
0.08460832
0.1258840
0.1269849
0.12960909
0.13025934
0.14020954
0.249601,014

Spread—Mid—

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
mombilYes207
pelikYes199.79
cigarettesYes140.55
CaptainCoinflipYes41.98
KiruaTradingYes24.99
nullpointer1Yes20.6
tradetosurvive1Yes20
68492363940Yes7.46
daniel122134Yes4.18
5sstyecdo71vYes2
64MGX75VLQYes1
buyat89No104.2
ppyiagoNo90
LonelyScissorsNo80
AJSVNo73.47
0x230d59Fa945B31660740EA95b8C9F774ED303fBB-1774601889454No50
.MentheNo49.98
ConsensusOfCredibleReportingNo44.86
2B9SNo39
lottonakamotoNo37.03

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
06:08:51BUYYes0.99942$41.94
19:47:55SELLNo0.00120$0.02
16:00:39BUYYes0.9991$1.00
21:59:19BUYYes0.9992$2.00
21:59:17BUYYes0.99200$197.79
18:06:49BUYNo0.0110$0.10
18:05:28SELLYes0.9913$12.66
18:05:20SELLYes0.9910$9.52
18:05:20BUYYes0.99167$165.71
18:04:04BUYYes0.961279326921$19.80
18:03:16BUYYes0.9272046804107$99.57
18:03:10BUYYes0.957$51.14
18:03:02BUYYes0.8525$21.25
18:02:47BUYYes0.8599999867$6.14
18:02:44BUYYes0.859999997415$13.14
18:02:44SELLNo0.1456$7.88
18:02:43BUYYes0.8685$73.14
18:02:43SELLNo0.14275$38.43
18:02:05BUYYes0.6248$29.64
18:02:05BUYNo0.423$9.00
18:02:05BUYNo0.46$2.25
18:02:05BUYYes0.619999988512$7.56
18:00:08BUYYes0.638$5.12
17:59:59BUYYes0.6009661836207$124.40
17:59:58BUYYes0.627580$50.20